2/4 NL- More folding

[aggie]

I'm not folding this. Especially given your reads but even without any reads. Many people play a set, two pair, an overpair, or even TPTK this way. Just too many possibilities to let this one go in a heads up pot where you're getting almost 2-1.

I would have a hard time folding this. I would really need to see how villain has been playing his hands, however. Some stats, whether he likes to push. You need a little more information here. Also, I think I said this before, but I would much rather see a pot sized bet on the turn than a weak 3/4th-ish one. But, if you know yourself and are going to be squeamish with a third diamond, then might as well be a little more conservative with the pot from the get-go.

Also, as to the possibilities of his hand, assuming your opponent is logical and has some respect for your game, you can narrow his hand down, at least beyond two pair.

One thing I don't advocate is overbetting on the turn to justify a call. Look - if you think that your opponent is on the flush and/or have no reads on him to believe otherwise, then putting more money in just to lose more money is a very unprofitable proposition.

When all is said and done, results would be appreciated.

[aggie]

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When all is said and done, results would be appreciated.

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My guess would be that hero folded and did not see villians hand. It's irrelevant though. People can get way too hung up on results. Clearly sometimes hero is facing a flush and sometimes he's not.

What matters is the pot odds. Hero is getting slightly less than 2-1 on this pot. Granted, when hero calls and is ahead villian will usually have outs. My guess without doing any math is that hero needs to be ahead here 40% of the time to be correct in calling and i definitely think he will be. It all comes down to the simple fact that this is a heads up pot and it is very difficult to make a flush.

[xorbie]

Since hero loses about 20% when ahead, and wins never when behind, we need to be ahead here 40% of the time just about exactly. So good guess (it's like 41% to be more exact).

the way u played it u look like big pair to villian i dont think he can put u on str8 and so i think u might not want to fold herre