An interesting J6s hand.

[southgapoker]

I do not like the play.

I'm making an occasional squeeze play with two other players in the hand, not four.

You are going to get called. The pot odds are simply too good.

You will be giving around 3:1 (more really) to call. Are FOUR players who have already willingly put money in this pot ALL going to fold?

I doubt it. Call and make a play after the flop if it is favorable. If it's not, get out of the hand. I'm not bluffing four players here no matter what my stack size looks like.

[ansky451]

This is pretty bad.

You have to consider the odds your opponents will be getting if you push.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather call and hope to flop something sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

And squeeze plays are better when you don't have a hand that can flop something sexy. 93o is a better squeeze hand thatn 87s or J6s because with the latter hands you can take your FAT pot odds, quietly outflop everyone, and get your money in later.

BettyBoop already nailed why the squeeze is bad here, so I won't water-down that sweet explanation with redundancies.

Everett

[adanthar]

Yeah, Betty is correct. This could be a call, but I don't like the squeeze - even if MP folds, the button or SB will be getting 3.5-ish to 1 to call. You're not getting away with it here.

[pokerstudAA]

Some of you have said just call. Without a doubt this hand is definately a instant call. I can understand wanting to see a flop but there are not many flops that will make J6s hold up against 5 players. If a jack flops I am no good - a flush and I am still worried. 2pair - mabye good.

I did not really see this hand as a squeeze play in the HOH traditional sense. I wanted to put alot of pressure on the other players in the hand. Based on my reads I felt this pot was mine for the taking. If I dont take it down preflop I am not that big of a dog against my opponents hand ranges. I just cant see the hand going call, call, call, call. The all-in is definately not going to be all around. It will be heads up at worst. My tournament was not at risk and I would still be a big stack. If I win the pot my stack will easily take me to the final table.

Some of you had pointed out the odds the other players were getting. Each had about 18k left and the pots was 50k at that point. What hands woiuld any of you call all in with there? Even if you are getting 3:1 it is your tournament on the line. What hands do you call with if you are MP2? Or CO? What hands do you put me on?

I was representing a real big hand. You could put me on AK, JJ+. I could not see anyone calling with 88, 66, JTs, 89s, QTo or similar low pair/suited connector hands. I definately felt at worst I would get the pot heads up against AQ, AK, TT, or 99.

So when do we find out what happened?

I say just call, too many people close to crunch time, and why do you need to attck 4 players at once at this time? And if you're so unpleased with the prospects of calling, then maybe just fold. But then again I'm no pro.

Also are you the same user name on PS? If so I think we've been in a few SNGs together.

And hey if you get a chance I'd love to hear your take on my problem.

thanks,
suzzer

[jubeirm]

I like the push. Mathematically you stand to gain:

I computed everything in BB with the average stack at 5bb. Looking back now I realize it should be 5.5bb, but... I'll have to re-work it later.

First the probability of wining I used:
J6s vs 1-rand = 0.5060
J6s vs 2-rand = 0.3268

Case 1:
Everyone folds x% of the time, you get called (1-x)% of the time.

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*16*0.5060 = 8.096(1-x)

BE: 9x + 8.096(1-x) = 8.096 - 0.904x > 4, for all x


Case 2:
ALL fold x%, (1-x)/2 you get 1 call, (1-x)/2 you get 2 calls

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*(16/2)*0.5060 = 4.048(1-x)
you push, 2 call, you win: (1-x)*(19/2)*0.3268 = 3.105(1-x)

BE: 9x + 4.048(1-x) + 3.105(1-x) = 7.153 - 1.847x > 4, for all x

So in both case 1 and 2 you don't need anyone to fold.


Alternativly:
J6s vs AQ+,TT,99 = 0.3375
J6s vs QQ+ = 0.1670

I think the important thing is your reads on people in this hand and would allow for about a 5% chance you're reads are off: J6s vs 1 caller = 0.95*0.3375 + 0.05*0.1670 = 0.3298

Case 1 (re-visited):

you push, they all fold: x*9
you push, 1 call, you win: (1-x)*16*0.3298 = 5.2636(1-x)

BE: 9x + 5.2636(1-x) = 5.2636 - 3.7364x > 4, for all x > 0.3381

If everyone folds 33% or better and you get one caller with a strong hand the rest of the time you come out ahead. Unless I've made a big error I say the push is +EV.

What if you get 2, 3 or 4 callers, which would seem to be a very real possibility in this situation?

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
So when do we find out what happened?


[/ QUOTE ]

Results

I go all in. MP2 folds as expected. CO calls with AKs. Button folds. SB folds. My J6s v. AKs for a 60k pot. I outdraw his ass like any good fish. My stack is huge and I finish 3rd. This wound up being a high-risk play for alot of chips. I am still not sure what was correct.

I am still curious as to what hand ranges you guys think the opponents should call here with? Button was getting 4:1 and SB the same (60k:18k). Do you call with 88? TJ?