How much do you value bet this river?

[poboy]

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This is probably a split most often (which makes betting bad), but you may get called with something random often enough to make betting +EV.

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How is betting into what is likely a split bad? You lose nothing by betting and stand to gain the whole pot. By checking behind you gain nothing and likely lose half the pot. JMO

[amoeba]

you lose additional rake by betting.

if you want folding equity, you have to bet big as an Ace isn't folding to a value bet.

[amoeba]

because villain is always on flush draw right?

[poboy]

Most sites cap their rake at $3(not sure if this is true on Party) and with a $70+ pot on the river if it hasn't already been reached we are talking about maybe another 50 cents. Villian would need to fold a very small percentage of the time to make up for the additional rake. I agree it does need to be a large bet to get villian to fold, a value bet isn't going to do it. JMO

[brassnuts]

Well, I checked it. Villain showed KTo, MHIG.

[just2ska]

what if you value bet and get re raised large?

check it.

[amoeba]

if you are counting the small edge that you get from getting him to fold a split with a huge bet, you must also count the small percentage of times that he would check the river with a boat.

I still maintain that check behind is correct.

[cfb1739]

I don't see a hand here that will call your river bet unless you are beat.

Unless you think villain played A2, A3 or A4 this way, then you should check behind.

[poboy]

True but then we would also have to factor in the small percentage of times that villian will call our bet with a worse hand. I really believe betting is better, very little risk for what could possibly be a large reward. JMO

[poboy]

You do realize Hero isn't beating any of those hands right?