Question on calculating holdem odds using 4/2 method

[Tical]

Players--

How do I calculate my chances, using the 4/2 percent method, of going runner runner to suck out a flush or get a str8?

Thanks!!

[Louie Landale]

You don't.

The 4% (with 2 cards to go) and 2% (with one card to go) times your # outs to estimate your chances is fair when you have few outs, such as 3, but falls apart in accuracy when you've got lots of outs. With 15 outs you are actually about even money but the 4% method shows you as a 60%:40% favorite. Anyway, this method doesn't address back-door draws.

Back-door draws are "worth" about 1.5 outs. More accuracy is worth only pennies.

- Louie

[casshern]

When you have a lot of out (11+), substract the 2 numbers in the amount of outs to the %.

15 outs * 4 = 60%
60 - 1 - 5 = 54% (real % is 54.1)

18 outs * 4 = 72%
72 - 1 - 8 = 63% (real % is 62.4)