PP NL400 KK preflop: Did I screw myself by minreraising here?

[BadVoodooX]

10 handed NL 400 on Party.

MP2 $450
LP2 $400
Hero $861
SB $404

(for some reason bisonbisons converter isn't working, bear with me)

Folded to MP2, MP2 calls, truly horrible calling station.
Folded to LP2 to my immediate right, Raises to $13. I don't put much stock in this raise, I've been doing the same to isolate the calling station.

I'm on the button with KhKd and assuming he just wants to isolate the calling station but I'd prefer to keep actually get some action here and not just take the pot down so I just min reraise to $22, hoping to play 3 way with calling station and/or LP2 but preferably no more than 3 players.

SB reraises me to $48. Tight, solid, somewhat tricky regular. Obviously 3rd reraise is ugly but somewhat undersized and my min reraise is highly abnormal for me and I've been raising to isolate calling station very aggressively last 2 rounds. Don't know how he plays AK out of the blinds either.

MP2 folds,
LP2 folds,

Obviously I have to at least draw at a set here so even if he's got AA, he's pricing me into the flop and if he's got AA and a K comes, I'll likely stack him.

Hero calls $26

Flop: Pot $113
Ad, Ks, Qh

SB bets $70

Bleh!

WTF did I get myself into and what do I do here?

[okayplayer]

Well, it's tough to lay down a set, but I think a tight, solid player (regular nonetheless) is not putting in a 3rd raise PF without AA (or maybe KK, but that's not possible here), esp. OOP. I think you should have re raised more, but now that you've arrived at this point, however tough it may be, I think you are drawing to one out and should fold.

[durrrr]

3rd nuts no good? stik it in.. hope u hit k, if not beat his A9 off w/ ur trips. If beat rebuy, next hand, you can lose your $$ in worse places. folding here = -------EV

-durrrr

[Bosox]

I'll risk it and play for my stack here.
sox

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll risk it and play for my stack here.


[/ QUOTE ]

[9cao]

Your reraise was only to 22 which is 5.5xBB, therefore I think Villain can easily make this play with AK and QQ. 3 ways to have AK here, 3 ways to have QQ, and 3 ways to have AA. I would say given the action there is a higher probabilty of AA but still not greater than 50%. Stack off here.

[bruce]

I'm going to try to get'em all in. If SB has AA then he's going to get himself doubled up. With this type of action
it's impossible to put him only on AA. Why can't he have QQ or AK? Nobody plays in that predictable a manner.

Bruce

[DonButtons]

Tell me which "SB reraises me to $48. Tight, solid, somewhat tricky regular." screen name and it makes it a lot easier.

From any decent regular, I fold here, as he def. has AA/KK after this third raise, and when the K hits, he has AA.

[BadVoodooX]

I talked myself into calling here because my weak reraise somewhat discounted the 3rd raise so I thought that he might have QQ here but I definitely had that sinking feeling in my guts that I was screwed and facing AA against this particular player under these circumstances. I just didn't consider AK a likely possibility, even though I don't know for certain how he plays AK, I think he's too good of a player to make that play in a potentially 4 way pot or where he might get reraised off it. My plan was that if he bet out again on the turn was to fold, I didn't see him pushing AK there or QQ again considering the preflop action if I flat called and I would take it on faith that he had AA and dump it.

The miracle case K came on the turn. He bet $150 and I flat called. On the river blank he took a good 15 seconds before betting his remaining $136 but he clearly knew that he'd been screwed by the turn and was just praying I had AK. All in all, I'm sort of disgusted with myself for not going with my instinct and dumping it on the flop because I was pretty convinced he was far more likely to have AA than AK or QQ but I was just too enamoured of my set of K's even though I know better.

[bruce]

Your discounting possible hands he can reraise with from small blind. I doubt that opponent will only reraise with only KK or AA esp. after 2nd miniraise. I don't think its unrealistic for
us to include QQ, AK, and maybe AQ. Jacks are possible BTF but based on his flop bet we can discount them. Are you telling me that's it's also impossible for SB to be bluffing
with rubbish from SB?

There are 6 combos of AA, 8 of AK, 6 of QQ, and 16 of AQ.
The only hand that crushes us is AA. What about the other
30 hands? I know hero got lucky, but there is no way in hell I muck second set, UNLESS I have a GREAT read on my opponent. In an online game, I don't think you can ever get
this accurate a read on your opponent.

Bruce