Me vs. Matt Flynn

[Matt Flynn]

i would've bet whatever you recommended in your post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

depends on how much i thought he'd call with an overpair. probably would've erred on the cautious side and bet 20x. he might come over the top or call then bet the river. i bet small again on the river. hard to resist that. all them pot odds.

if you really think he'll lay down there you can check the turn.

matt

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
i would've bet whatever you recommended in your post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

depends on how much i thought he'd call with an overpair. probably would've erred on the cautious side and bet 20x. he might come over the top or call then bet the river. i bet small again on the river. hard to resist that. all them pot odds.

if you really think he'll lay down there you can check the turn.

matt

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so then I presume that you bet less when you miss too? If the turn is an offsuit deuce, you go with half-pot again? How often do you fire another barrel when you have the other guy in the spot that you had Wayfare?

The reason that I'm wondering is because I feel like unless you are checking behind on the turn a lot or making him pay more when you have/make a hand, then your opponent might have a pretty easy check-raise/call-down from a prior probability stand-point. Assuming that he knows math and/or has the balls, which fortunately for you, eliminates about 95% of the online population... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Mike

[Matt Flynn]

mike,

yes and yes. one of the strengths of my game - at least in my mind - is that my betting and checking varies more than most players. i give up ev in isolation sometimes, but the benefit is it is often hard to put me on a hand online.

matt

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]


OK, so then I presume that you bet less when you miss too? If the turn is an offsuit deuce, you go with half-pot again?


[/ QUOTE ]

this is the key point IMO.....

FWIW, I don't like the half-pot bet at all.....if Matt always overbets with the bluff and always underbets the goods, it's too easy to play against him......if he always makes the same sized bet, it's tougher.....and if that's the case, why not go with the bet that yields the highest folding equity (is it true that Dutch Boyd coined that phrase? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), especially since we're talking about a five-outer here (Matt's only gonna hit that like 10% of the time)......I think a big bet on the turn makes for the highest EV (with these stack sizes)......but then again, like Mike said, a lot of people are dumb and don't think about this stuff or figure out how to read hands by betting patterns.....