party 30/60 hand I'm not happy with

[Justin A]

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Wouldn't raising the turn for a free showdown accomplish more in this spot?

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This is what I thought too, but I think I saw the results too soon.

[lil feller]

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Wouldn't raising the turn for a free showdown accomplish more in this spot?

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I haven't read the results yet, but in reading the OP that was my thought. The donk screams "I picked up a draw), and the call screams "I'm weak as hell and don't have an Ace". I raise the turn 100% of the time here without hesitation.

lf

[Boris]

This thread is pretty funny. The hand is a pretty clear fold on the river. But then when you post the results everyone starts saying you should've called down.

[shemp]

Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?

[DcifrThs]

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Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?

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you have outs.

you may get a free showdown.

you may still have the best hand.

the pot is sizable/decently sized. (can't remember # players but around 10bbs)

EDIT: 7.5:1 to call the turn closing the action. if behind AND have 100% of 5 outs you need about 8.5:1 to call. if ahead then clearly you should raise getting/laying 3.75:1 for yourself. if you believe tha probability you are ahead + the probability you wont have to call a bet on the river is large enough compared to the probability you are behind and drawing to 2 outs + the probability you'r behind drawing to 5 outs + the probability that you have to call a river bet, then you should raise the turn. if you think the first two probabilities are relatively small, then you should do what you did, which is call/fold.

stox said why not fold turn. this imo is the powe of position and action closing. if the action went bb check utg bet Paluka raised bb cold called the flop, THEN the ace fell on the turn and bb checked againa nd UTG bet then a fold is prudent b/c the bb called 2 cold on the flop w/ no real draw out there and UTG fired again when the ace hit.

but here, paluka is getting 7.5:1 on an optimistic 8.5:1 shot or 3.75:1 for a raise. with implied odds id say this is a call even if those implied odds have to be played passively. further, i think the turn play is close given that he coudl be drawing to 2 outs and pay reverse implied odds for the draw. id lean towards a fold vs. "decent" players, but against 2 unknowns with no reads at all ive never seen id lean towards a FCR {0,50,50}. further, the bb would be (imo and i could be wrong) more likely to bet into a field here w/ top pair weak kicker vs. A7 or Awhatever-the-other-rag-was despite combinatoric evidence to the contrary.

NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.

Barron

[shemp]

The mission you set for yourself was apparently to answer the question: "Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?"

You made a case for calling the turn (before descending into incoherent babble). You say part of the reason to call the turn is that he might be best, well, did the river lead and call change that? That is the question.

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.


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See, it's not clear what street you are talking about. Assuming it is the turn... If raising 50% and calling 50% is correct, you want to argue that that 50% you call you should fold a blank river unimproved? Huh?

[ike]

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.



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This make absolutely no sense. Mixed strategies in poker are good because over the long run observant opponents can exploit pure strategies. Closing the action on the river in a simulation of this exact situation against two guys you don't know who don't know you, either calling or folding is better and any mixed strategy is strictly wrong (unless the situation is such that you are completely indifferent between calling and folding and every answer is right). This FCR triple thing has everyone talking out of their asses.

[DcifrThs]

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.



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This make absolutely no sense. Mixed strategies in poker are good because over the long run observant opponents can exploit pure strategies. Closing the action on the river in a simulation of this exact situation against two guys you don't know who don't know you, either calling or folding is better and any mixed strategy is strictly wrong (unless the situation is such that you are completely indifferent between calling and folding and every answer is right). This FCR triple thing has everyone talking out of their asses.

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granted that i dont understand fully the whole triple thing and all its exactitudes, this is what i thought.

i was imagining a monte carlo simulation type setting vs. in this spot. given my assumptions, and given that they dont remember the previous "draw" raising half the time and calling half the time on the turn is probably best (yields highest EV over long run i.e. 1million sims).

upon further reflection, some % of the time you will be drawing to 2 outs so folding should be in there and 50/50 call raise isn't correct. i dont think there is a clear dominant strategy here under those settings above.

NOW, moving to the setting you are talking about that is where the players will remember and will be playing optimally, then its much trickier b/c most strategies selected can be exploited.

i dont want to go through (and dont know if i even COULD do it correctly) all the calculations necessary to get the proper triple for this situation.

my WHOLE POINT though is that vs. unknowns, folding here i think is a loss.

Barron

[ggbman]

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This thread is pretty funny. The hand is a pretty clear fold on the river. But then when you post the results everyone starts saying you should've called down.

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I agree 100%. Like i said, i think there are many cases where a fold on the turn is appropriate as well. People, don't be so results oriented. Overcalling 2 streets with second pair medium kicker is a VERY bad plan for almost any situation, and nothing about this hand makes me think this is an exception.

[shemp]

It may be results oriented to say call the river. And I do like folding the turn. But I think calling the river is consistent with calling the turn. What I'd like is someone to explain why calling the turn and folding the river is correct taking into account the size of the pot and the likelihood that UTG is second best to you.