K10s against a 3 bet from 2+2er, can I call this flop?

[Kevin]

In true Party fashion, this round of hand histories did not come (it seems that I am getting about 90% of them these days).

I will try and recollect the flop as best as I can.


pretty juicy 5/10 game, I am mp with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Fold to me, I open raise. 2+2er to my left 3 bets (10% sf not a blind and 8% PFR in about 700 hands with him).

Folded back to me. I call.

Flop is Q 9 x 2 diamonds. I check, he bets.

8 small bets in (the small blind I am assuming in the drop at this point).

If I am doing the math correctly

High Probability Hands:
I have 90% probability that he would 3 bet with AA-1010 and AK. There are 33 ways for this to happen - (6 AA, 3 KK (since I have Ks), 3 QQ (since Qd is on board), 6 with JJ, 3 with 1010 (since I have 10s), 11 AK other than AdKd (since I have Ks) and 1 way to have Ad Kd. If I weight all of these possibilities equally and assume that there is 90% probability that he has one of these hands then, that equals 4.8 outs.

Medium Probability Hands
If there is 8% chance that he has one of the 3 possible remaining combinations of AQs, 99, AJs (non diamond) and the one combination of AdJd, that is 10 possibilities - which equals another (weighted) 0.5 outs.

Low Probability Hands
If I look at the very unlikely scenariao (2%) that he has Ad10d or the 3 other A10s, and the 6 ways to have 88-66, that is another 22 possibilities (weighted) for 0.2 outs -


so a total of 5.5 outs - which works out to 7.51-1 which is a call with the Ks10s.

If I give 100% possibility to only the first bucket of hands (AA-1010, AK), it is 4.8 outs (weighted), it comes out to 8.79 to one - which is very very close, but by the letter of the law, a fold if I do not count the extra bets collected from implied odds.


Way too much thought and time into this, I am sure - but I was hoping for some feedback on the play.

Is the logic correct?
Do I weight Aces, Kings and Queens heavier than JJ, 1010 and AK for a 3 bet?

Is it wishful thinking about the medium and low probability hands to give justification for the call - or would anyone here 3 bet an open raiser with the medium and low probability hands?

I will cross post in the probability forum if it is more appropriate.

Thanks for your feedback,
Kevin

[Eihli]

You'll never have time to do all that math at the table. You need a T, you aren't getting odds, you fold.

[Kevin]

[ QUOTE ]
You'll never have time to do all that math at the table. You need a T, you aren't getting odds, you fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I need a J - and that is the precise reason I posted the question - because I don't have odds for a 4 outer - if that is what they are put on - so am I to assume that a 3 bet means AA-QQ? (those are the only one with exactly 4 outs). It is actually 5.3 weighted outs and 7.81-1 if it is all in the AA-1010, AK, group which does give odds to call (the above example had it weighted at 90% which was 4.8 outs - it moves up to 5.3 when back to 100%). I was thinking of Ed's hidden outs section when I did this exercise. I can go back to assuming that every three bet is exactly AA and I will continue to fold this hand in the future.

[Eihli]

My mistake, a J. Nobody will give you much action if a J or T hits and most of the time he'll have a FH redraw against you.

[JTG51]

You should call.

Imagine this very simple game plan. Check raise if you turn a straight, check fold any other turn. That plan will almost always make you at least two big bets when you hit and often three or four, while costing you nothing when you miss. That makes your implied odds somewhere between 12-1 and 16-1. Way more than you need to call the flop.

If you can play the turn profitably when you hit a King or Ten, it's even better.

[JTG51]

Nobody will give you much action if a J or T hits...

A 2+2er will bet the turn and pay off a check raise on this board with almost any hand that they 3-bet preflop.

...and most of the time he'll have a FH redraw against you.

If the 2+2er flopped a set, Kevin is going to be able to get four bets on the turn almost every time that he hits a straight. That's way more than enough to make up for his reduced equity due to the full house redraw.

[balkii]

you are really overthinking this one. You flopped a nut draw, take a card off. check raise if you hit, check fold if you dont. deal with turning a K or a T when it happens

[Alexthegreat]

I agree.....on that flop you should always pay the one small bet and see what comes.....A more important question is your play if you hit a K or a 10 on the turn.....I'm thinking lead at him and fold if he raises....?

[Eihli]

I must have been reading two posts at the same time and got hands mixed up. I was thinking he had TT on a AKQ board when I replied.

[jediael]

Implied odds come to mind. Definately call