Call river with 44 (on board), Ace Kicker v. strength in 9.75 BB pot?

The continuation bet on the flop was marginal. It's almost 100% likely someone has caught a part of that flop. JT and two spades hits a large variety of hands people call raises with.

Give it up on the turn. At best you're behind QJ and have your AK for outs. Mostly likely you're behind AJ or KJ. Plus, one of your gutshot outs could be tainted if someone's drawing to a flush. I'd say you should assume your draw has 5 outs AT BEST. That's not enough to call the turn. Your gutshot is the only one with good implied odds. Hitting the A or K is more likely to have reverse implied odds.

And definitely fold that river. Your ace-high is so unlikely to be good here. I know you've read folding the winning hand is a HUGE mistake and all that... but think about the way the hand played out. Does it make sense for him to continue betting and betting here without being paired? He could have checked behind on the turn or the river, but he kept firing.

If your A or K paired up on the river, then of course call it down. You have some chance of winning there. And if ANY Q came on the river, assume you're ahead and raise. It's unlikely he had a flush draw here.

[fizzleboink]

The flop and turn look pretty close. That flop will hit a lot of hands but I think they'll both fold 15% of the time and you have a decent number of outs so you would call a bet anyways.

Once he bets the turn I think you can rule out any sort of draw. However, I think you can call the turn. If you give yourself 2.5 outs for the overcards and 3.5 for the gutshot, you have a clear call. Come on guys, you can't eliminate your spade outs completely because they won't always have that flush draw.

River is a clear fold for me though. He isn't bluffing this whole way with a draw unless he's a nut, and you don't know if he is. I think people take the "don't fold for one bet in a large pot" a little too far. Analyze what has happened in previous betting rounds, and put your opponent on a range of hands. Does a draw fit the action? Nope. So why call?

[aces_dad]

I agree the turn outs should be at least 8 (reduced from 10 due to the spade) giving odds to call in this pot.

But I also don't think you're good on the river often enough to call this, especially with a 'reasonable' read on villian. I only call this down against known LAG's who I've seen bluff bet / bluff raise (which he did on the flop) UI. In this case I can lay it down without too much grief.

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I agree the turn outs should be at least 8 (reduced from 10 due to the spade) giving odds to call in this pot.

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I hesitated over it in the event, but on the fly thought I had correct odds. I had calculated what I thought was a conservative 6 outs: 3 for the gutshot minus spade + 3 for the possibly tainted overcards. Thus, if pot odds (not even including implied odds, which are decent with GS) are more than 7-to-1, I thought a call would be correct. And here's what they were:

Flop: 11.5-to-1 immediate pot odds.
Turn: 7.75-to-1 immediate pot odds.

So I called. If I was wrong and there were 5 outs, then I needed more than 8.5-to-1 to call (again, not including implied odds) on the flop, making the call correct, but making the turn call more questionable (still, with implied odds I think it's correct).

[@bsolute_luck]

the point made i believe Sklansky and Miller's point wasn't pointed to when all you can beat is a bluff, but say you had AT- i believe it would be bad to fold this river because of the reasons you said, or a smaller pocket pair, or a T-weak kicker getting goofy.

or if you have QQ
and the board is (in order of streets) KQ7TJ and you get c/r or donkbet into and the pot is >10BBs. sure you could lose to an A, but there are other hands we could have that you beat, so you don't fold there.

i think the bigger leak is to be calling these hands thinking "hey may be bluffing and the pot is big" than "i have nothing, i don't think he's bluffing though he may be, i'm still going to fold".

[aces_dad]

I think 6 outs on the turn is conservative enough to make your odds calculations good enough to call.

Now to the river, unless villian is a complete LAG I've seen bluff bet and bluff raise (which he did on the flop) with nothing I save the BB as I don't see you being good here often at all.

[Eeegah]

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the point made i believe Sklansky and Miller's point wasn't pointed to when all you can beat is a bluff, but say you had AT- i believe it would be bad to fold this river because of the reasons you said, or a smaller pocket pair, or a T-weak kicker getting goofy.

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I believe the words in SSHE are to not fold decent hands for one bet on the river when the pot is large. In an example like this where someone's been shlogging on the PFR the entire hand, I think it's fair to give the guy credit for at least pottom pair.

This is one of those places where misinterpereting SSHE can cost you a fair bit of money over the long run [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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i think the bigger leak is to be calling these hands thinking "hey may be bluffing and the pot is big" than "i have nothing, i don't think he's bluffing though he may be, i'm still going to fold".

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Now to the river, unless villian is a complete LAG I've seen bluff bet and bluff raise (which he did on the flop) with nothing I save the BB as I don't see you being good here often at all.

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I believe the words in SSHE are to not fold decent hands for one bet on the river when the pot is large. In an example like this where someone's been shlogging on the PFR the entire hand, I think it's fair to give the guy credit for at least pottom pair.

This is one of those places where misinterpereting SSHE can cost you a fair bit of money over the long run [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Clearly, the above represents the consensus (if anyone disagrees or has something to add, by all means pipe up), and thus I need to get much better at judging when to make this river call. Thanks very much for the really good posts.

[Buccaneer]

Stone, I think that when you play this hand you have to remember that this is a drawing hand. You are agressive early and loose that agressiveness late in the hand when villian begins to get agressive. I think that his hand improved in value and yours continued to decrease. He raised you on the flop. If he is "reasonable" then he got a piece of it. I play the hand like you did but I fold the turn to his bet. If I called then I check the river and fold to a bet. Is there a chance that your hand is best, yes. But I do not think it is good 10%, or even 5%. You have ace high, the board shows a possible 2pair, trips, fh, straight and even quads. I think you have to have a some kind of hand to expect to win 10% of the time when you think you are beat.

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Stone, I think that when you play this hand you have to remember that this is a drawing hand. You are agressive early and loose that agressiveness late in the hand when villian begins to get agressive. I think that his hand improved in value and yours continued to decrease. He raised you on the flop. If he is "reasonable" then he got a piece of it. I play the hand like you did but I fold the turn to his bet. If I called then I check the river and fold to a bet. Is there a chance that your hand is best, yes. But I do not think it is good 10%, or even 5%. You have ace high, the board shows a possible 2pair, trips, fh, straight and even quads. I think you have to have a some kind of hand to expect to win 10% of the time when you think you are beat.

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Great points. Thank you.