PL600 Too passive?

Twentysack · #1 05-09-2005, 03:03 AM

Villian in the hand is Nikesong69 if that helps. Not much of a read on him, he probably reads me as tight. Will i be seeing a busted flush draw or 2 pair enough to make this call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Button ($382.8)
SB ($935.75)
Hero ($628.8)
UTG ($213.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $9, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($36) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, UTG folds, SB calls $20.

Turn: ($76) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $65, Hero calls $65.

River: ($206) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $125.

Final Pot: $331

radioheadfan · #2 05-09-2005, 03:37 AM

Someone's gonna say it so it might as well be me. Fold preflop.

As you played it, the river is a relatively easy call.

cero_z · #3 05-09-2005, 03:38 AM

Hi Twentysack,

[ QUOTE ]
Too Passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn, yes. It's not too likely he puts you on a 2, given that he probably views you as tight. He's very unlikely to have a 2 himself, of course. Plus, you are chopping with most 2s. And a boat is of course extremely unlikely given the action and board so far.

His turn bet looks like a Queen, a good J, or a Jhxh, maybe. It would be a very odd/bad way to have played a deuce thus far: failing to c/r you on the flop with a flush draw out there and you having bet $20, which looks like a real hand, then betting into you when a c/r seems very likely to work. I think he just puts you on a J, and can beat one, or has a big draw to do so. 2 flush draws and Q,J on the board; you'd better charge him now before a draw completes and either beats you or kills your action.

On the river, you must at least call. You're ahead at least 70% here, and that's conservative. The Th makes JhTh impossible, and I think that helps you here. You don't have a raise if he plays decent post-flop, because a raise pretty much represents a straight or better, though he won't fold trips at this level, most likely. If you raise and get called, he's gonna win or split.

I think you missed your chance to win a bigger pot by not raising the turn, though you ought to win a substantial majority of the time here. Really, the hands that beat you are Jhxh, 9c8c, or something he played badly and got lucky with (A2, AhKh, any full, any straight).

cero_z · #4 05-09-2005, 03:46 AM

Oh yeah,

And fold pre-flop, and check-raise the flop. The pre-flop call is no good because the pf raiser doesn't need a good hand at all to make it $12 4-handed, so you're not likely to get paid off big if you hit, and you'll almost never hit. You at least need a straight possibility to go with 8-high suited to consider a call, IMO, unless you're going to be doing a lot of restealing.

Check-raise the flop because that board is so unthreatening that most pf raisers will automatically bet when checked to (as they should), and you can even trap the SB in the middle.

Twentysack · #5 05-09-2005, 03:59 AM

Ugh now i feel like such an idiot. I thought a fold was good at the time but now i look back and it seems like my hand was well hidden enough to have him not think i had the 2. Anyways i folded, he didn't show tho. Btw is the preflop call that bad? i figured a minraise of 6 bucks to me with closing action wasn't too bad.

VanVeen · #6 05-09-2005, 04:27 AM

I play a lot of poker (more than anyone? probably!) with NikeSong69 at both the 400 and 600. He does not perceive you as anything.

Call, not close. I do not raise the turn. Raising the turn loses too much value: they will fold worse hands a very high % of the time to a turn raise, whereas you can almost certainly extract 60%+ of the pot from them on the river by just calling the turn. If opponent has QJ, how can he call a raise? What are you raising with that he beats? AJ? KJ? KQc? These hands, which are the most likely worse hands villain can be holding, cannot and do not (the most important one) routinely call turn raises on this board. Average 600pl player is passive and straightforward (and bad) - they are correct to fold all of those hands.

You can extract as much (if not more) value from Qxc by calling the turn and extracting value on the river (in my experience in this game and 400). And the non-Qxc hands, which represents a good portion (half? too tired to estimate accurately) of their hand range, will fold the turn too high a % of the time to account for whatever value you *might* lose if my Qxc assumption is wrong. Hm, this is probably worth figuring out. To be continued (probably)...

RoboRob · #7 05-09-2005, 01:40 PM

He can't fold preflop, he is the BB.

emil3000 · #8 05-09-2005, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He can't fold preflop, he is the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise makes a fold possible.

jpg7n16 · #9 05-09-2005, 05:59 PM

But they were soooted

Rocaix · #10 05-09-2005, 07:26 PM

This is Party 600 6-max, call and win. You'll see QJ/QT or worse a significant percentage of the time. Ocassionally you may run into a badly played A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A2/K2, but on that board your folding the winner way too often.