Stars 55 Turbo Bubble Play

Pudge714 · #1 11-01-2005, 05:39 PM

Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:28:26 ET
Seat 3: Villian (2,880)
Seat 5: Hero (955)
Seat 8: BB (3,060)
Seat 9: UTG (6,605)
Hero posts the small blind of 100
BB posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ks Qd]
UTG folds
Villian raises to 400
Hero?

splashpot · #2 11-01-2005, 05:49 PM

I'd fold. He's not going to fold and you don't exactly want a showdown with K high.

mlagoo · #3 11-01-2005, 05:50 PM

May as well put it in. You're the shortstack by a mile and you'll have to double up (read: stealing blinds ain't gonna cut it) at some point to compete in this tournament. I don't think these stacks will tangle with you as short as you are, and your stealing opportunities are severely limited because the stack to your immediate left is huge.

I mean, the only other real option is to fold hoping to, for the most part, fold your way into the money. I think a push here is fine.

durron597 · #4 11-01-2005, 05:56 PM

This is breakeven at around top 30% for Villian. You think he's raising more than that?

30% = 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

splashpot · #5 11-01-2005, 05:59 PM

If the villian is raising top 25%: 22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+, this is a clear fold according to ICM. I think that range is close, if not on the generous side.

mlagoo · #6 11-01-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is breakeven at around top 30% for Villian. You think he's raising more than that?

30% = 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean, it is a minraise on the bubble from a villian with plenty of chips =/

otoh, i didnt realize KQ fared that poorly against that range.

#7 11-01-2005, 06:02 PM

You also need to consider your read on villain.
Is the 400 bet a come play with me bet or a not so sure I want to play bet ?

Personally I push with the KQ.

Time is too tight at the moment.

bigt439 · #8 11-01-2005, 06:12 PM

Je fold.

The next hand alone will have higher EV.

Pudge714 · #9 11-01-2005, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is breakeven at around top 30% for Villian. You think he's raising more than that?

30% = 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this post answers the question for me

Pudge714 · #10 11-01-2005, 08:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You also need to consider your read on villain.
Is the 400 bet a come play with me bet or a not so sure I want to play bet ?

Personally I push with the KQ.

Time is too tight at the moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

The min raise seems to me that he didn't want to raise 1/3rd of his stack, and have another big stack repush, and risk bubbling. That being said I think he is raising almost everything in his range like that. So I guess I need to put him on a better range.