Dreaded stats request . . . 20/40+. Going to showdown.

[Grisgra]

The commonly accepted correct range for going to showdown at the lower limits (10/20, 5/10 etc.) is in the 35% to 40% range. In those ranges, most people tend to win at showdown around 50% to 55% of the time (the lower the WTSD, the higher the W$SD, typically). Certainly, this is my experience over 100k+ hands at those limits.

Now I'm playing 20/40 and 30/60 and getting the living crap kicked out of me -- I used to be on the higher end, going to showdown almost 40% of the time. Now it's closer to 35%. And I'm still winning at showdown a lot less of the time, probably around 45%.

Possible explanations:

1) People are smarter at 20/40, less likely to call down with crap. They're showing fewer losers.
2) People are smarter at 20/40, chasing me off of marginal hands that would win at showdown (bottom/mid pair, etc.) In other words, I'm folding winners.
3) I am one unlucky son-of-a-bitch. My horrible run at 30/60 is over fewer than 5k hands, my almost break-even run at 20/40 is over fewer than 20k hands. Variance, she's just being a pain in the ass.

Yeah, I know I should just post hands, blah blah blah. And I will. But meanwhile . . . can any successful 20/40 or 30/60 SH folks give me an idea how often you go to showdown/how often you win there?