Semi bluff turn raise? right spot?

[silkyslim]

UTG is a giant LAG, played every hand for 20 hands. Other guy is a passive fish. THoughts? might not be the best because I only have pair outs but i might take it with A-hi if i get the fishy out. Fish will CC flop but not turn

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="red">UTG raises</font>, <font color="blue">1 fold</font>, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="blue">5 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="blue">1 fold</font>, <font color="red">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: (12 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 12 BB

[krimson]

A LAG and a fish. I doubt this is going to work often enough to be profitable. Even if that was the Ts I think calling is slightly better than a semi-bluff.

Given the fact that you are up against a "giant lag" You could easily have the best hand on the turn, so I like your turn raise, I actually see this more as a protection raise than a semibluff raise. Im not sure I like your flop play, if youre gonna call the flop(which you certainly should) you are much better off investing an extra small bet and raising the flop to force out the SB, you could easily have the best hand on this flop so it is important to try to get this heads up as soon as possible, but if you believe that the SB would cold call the flop raise but would not cold call a turn raise, Then I really liked the way you played this hand. Also River check is standard.

[krimson]

You might be ahead, and when your not, the giant lag likely comes back at you with a 3-bet which we have to call with odds. Passive fish may have a piece of the board, and is probably not folding if he does.

Maybe the hand worked out in the end, but I don't think this is the kind of play that goes our way as often as we want.

[ QUOTE ]
You might be ahead, and when your not, the giant lag likely comes back at you with a 3-bet which we have to call with odds. Passive fish may have a piece of the board, and is probably not folding if he does.

Maybe the hand worked out in the end, but I don't think this is the kind of play that goes our way as often as we want.

[/ QUOTE ]
All your points are valid, and I must admit that this hand is definitely one of those "out on the edge hands" where the correct line of action is highly debatable. There is no way I am going to say you are wrong by folding this turn or that I am right since I chose to raise this turn. I just believe that if the villain truly is a giant lag, then there is a higher than normal probability that the hero has the villain beat, and on this ragged board there is also a decent chance the SB doesnt have anything, and given the size of the pot, the hero does not have to have the best hand anywhere near 50% to make his turn raise correct. Im not really disagreeing with you, Im just telling you whats goin on inside my head. I do think this situation is close and highly debatable.

[krimson]

I would actually call on the turn, not fold. The pot is fairly big and I don't mind drawing here, i'm fairly confident my hand is worth 4+ outs. Plus if the passive fish folds behind me i'm comfortable calling a river bet u/i as well.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
I would actually call on the turn, not fold. The pot is fairly big and I don't mind drawing here, i'm fairly confident my hand is worth 4+ outs. Plus if the passive fish folds behind me i'm comfortable calling a river bet u/i as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
but thats the thing the fish isnt gonna fold for one bet because thats what he does, he calls. I also saw the LAG cap A8s so I could easily be ahead of him. I want to knock out the fish because the probably has 6 outs against me or has a crappy pair already that he will fold for 2 big bets. i realize the LAG wont fold the turn. This play cost the same as calling both bets but increases my chances of winning. please continue the discussion. thanks

[krimson]

I think where we differ in thinking is a) Optimism about currently having the best hand, and b) Fish will fold a better hand to 2 bets on the turn.

I will lean towards agreeing with you if the lpp fish acting behind you is capable of folding a weak made hand, like 6's, 8's or a small PP.

Another issue is that a lot of gutshot straight draws are available, and a loose fish will likely take his chances drawing.