Negreanu says....

Sorry Daniel, I don't believe you.

And even if you think it is a clear mistake to call with A6 in that situation, it doesn't rule out the possibility of you making a mistake in the heat of battle.

Have you never seen a world class player play with his chips as if he were going to bet, while studying his opponent for a reaction to this "intention"? Because Ted "looked like" he was going to bet does not mean he actually had the intention of betting. Only Ted knows this for sure.

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I've got more twenty three year old girls than you do.

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Ambiguous. Is that twenty 3-year-old girls, or twenty-three year-old girls? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Reminds me of that joke:

Q: What's so good about sex with twenty seven year olds?

A: There's twenty of them.

(I think this was on a joke thread in here somewhere...)

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Ted called the turn and the river brought another 6, for a final board 6-6-4-A-6. I checked and made it rather obvious (at least to me) that I didn’t like that card. I figured that my A-Q was probably in the lead, unless of course Ted had A-K.

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I guess the difference between poker math and real math is that in poker math they count the sixth card.

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I think he meant on the turn. He didn't like the river 6, because he now thought it was a split pot. I'm just guessing.

Heh. I just was watching Ted Forrest in the "James Woods vs. The Unabombers" where he and Nicole Sullivan were heads up. Nicole is all-in with Q3c vs. Ted's 8d6s (pre-flop), and she asks what her odds of winning are. Ted responds: "I'm not a real math guy, but I know Q-high is usally a favorite agains 8-high."

Just thought it was note-worthy to this discussion... I guess Ted wouldn't consider himself to be one of the "math types" that is being discussed in Daniel's article or in this thread.

[buddhablessed1]

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Ted called the turn and the river brought another 6, for a final board 6-6-4-A-6. I checked and made it rather obvious (at least to me) that I didn’t like that card. I figured that my A-Q was probably in the lead, unless of course Ted had A-K.

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I guess the difference between poker math and real math is that in poker math they count the sixth card.

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I think he meant on the turn. He didn't like the river 6, because he now thought it was a split pot. I'm just guessing.

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he specifically says he didn't like the river card even though he thought he was most likely still ahead unless ted had AK.

for being such a self proclaimed master at reading his opponents does anyone else find it interesting daniel never puts ted on AA. this after he says he knows ted is tricky. what does he think ted is calling the turn with in position after calling an all in preflop? AK and AA come to my mind.

it's funny how everytime daniel writes the word math it comes out with quotation marks around it.

[buddhablessed1]

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As for the term "conditional probability" can we be a little more anal? I mean seriously, I think the readers had the right idea as to what I was trying to convey. I'd never heard the term conditional probability before and I sure hadn't heard of Bayegosianish math!

You can nitpick the article all you want looking for terms that are used "improperly", but the fact remains that Howard came to the wrong conclusion because he wasn't taking into account the situation properly. Why? Because the simple fact that I wouldn't call with a six in my hand never crossed his mind. That's faulty thinking.


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LOL, hoss, the card player article that you wrote was titled, "Conditional Probability - There's more to probability than just the "poker math"
by Daniel Negreanu".

the title of your article is a term you've never heard before and then you proceed to discuss it at length whilst trying to make a much more intelligent professional look foolish? THAT'S FAULTY THINKING!

[mex78753]

funniest.
thread.
ever.

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And to clarify futher, of the top 100 poker players in the world, only ten to fifteen of them are more math oriented than you are. I know that by your answers to my quizzes and your refernces to the computer simulations you study. However, like Mike Caro you publicly distance yourself from your own mathematical inclinations because you know I already have that turf covered and because it annoys you that I've got more twenty three year old girls than you do.

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LOL, that was funny dude, I love it! Only one correction: the last four women I've seen you with were 18, 16, 15 and 14 years of age. Dude, I don't come the high school's quite like you do- you got me there! lol.

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Ted called the turn and the river brought another 6, for a final board 6-6-4-A-6. I checked and made it rather obvious (at least to me) that I didn’t like that card. I figured that my A-Q was probably in the lead, unless of course Ted had A-K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the difference between poker math and real math is that in poker math they count the sixth card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he meant on the turn. He didn't like the river 6, because he now thought it was a split pot. I'm just guessing.

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he specifically says he didn't like the river card even though he thought he was most likely still ahead unless ted had AK.

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Right. He didn't like the river card, BECAUSE he thought he was in the lead on the turn. Surely he didn't mean he was in the lead on the river, "unless Ted had AK". For him to mean that, he'd have to be a moron. And, I don't think he's a moron. So, benefit of the doubt, surely he meant he thought he was in the lead on the turn (with a bigger kicker than Ted, presumably).

[IndianaSlim]

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And to clarify futher, of the top 100 poker players in the world, only ten to fifteen of them are more math oriented than you are. I know that by your answers to my quizzes and your refernces to the computer simulations you study. However, like Mike Caro you publicly distance yourself from your own mathematical inclinations because you know I already have that turf covered and because it annoys you that I've got more twenty three year old girls than you do.

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LOL, that was funny dude, I love it! Only one correction: the last four women I've seen you with were 18, 16, 15 and 14 years of age. Dude, I don't come the high school's quite like you do- you got me there! lol.

[/ QUOTE ]Oh snap!