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View Poll Results: Will GWB be an Anchor? | |||
Yes | 24 | 58.54% | |
No | 17 | 41.46% | |
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?
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#2
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's my argument against. |
#3
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's my argument against. [/ QUOTE ] My guess is there's at least a 3% margin of error in a sample as small as 2300 hands. Just a guess, based on how I've seen myself portrayed over 1k, 2k, and 5k hand samples. Rob |
#4
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
My guess is there's at least a 3% margin of error in a sample as small as 2300 hands. Just a guess, based on how I've seen myself portrayed over 1k, 2k, and 5k hand samples. Rob [/ QUOTE ] A 95% confidence interval is plus or minus 1.3%, assuming his true PFR is .12 |
#5
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
So he could actually be a much tighter raiser then?
Lost Wages |
#6
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
So he could actually be a much tighter raiser then? Lost Wages [/ QUOTE ] Not much tighter, but tighter, yes (in the same way that he could be a looser raiser, but not incredibly loose). I figured he was likely around a 6-10% PFR. Rob |
#7
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
This is just a dumb iso-reraise. 6-10% means he's not doing this much. Fold and move on. You made a mistake. All the posts point to the same thing. |
#8
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
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This is just a dumb iso-reraise. 6-10% means he's not doing this much. Fold and move on. You made a mistake. All the posts point to the same thing. [/ QUOTE ] Your post wasn't all that helpful -- but I'm not sure if it was meant to be. Your equity is very rarely bad in this situation (it takes him being much less than a 6% PFR for your equity to ever be a lot worse than "fair share"), you have position, you have initiative, and you've got a terrible player subsidizing any losses in the form of dead money. Even if you disagree with a 3-bet here it's very rarely a "dumb" isoraise. AFAIC you've got a pretty strong holding here and the opportunity to use it to your advantage. Rob |
#9
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's my argument against. [/ QUOTE ] so... do you think he raises the exact same hand range from any position or situation? i think he raises less than 8% of his hands from UTG right? this means hes going to have to raise more than 8% from somewhere to even it out at 8, i think hes definatley raising light from this spot and we have an easy 3-bet edit: see my post directly above for more on why |
#10
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Re: I\'m turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%? [/ QUOTE ] well lets assume hes not aware of position and raising about 8% of his hands here, according to pokerstove, were about even money(53/47 dog) against the top 8% of hands, plus we have the postflop advantages of position and the inititive and can more easily knock out the blinds by 3-betting and im very confident that hes rasing more hands in this spot than he is on average overall, making this an easy 3-bet if he opens UTG, we have an easy fold because he is raising less than he is on average overall |
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