party 2000NL: blind war: TP2K

[fsuplayer]

party 2000NL 5 handed

linda12 a 37/22/3 (LAGish) opens to 60 from the SB, which is standard for her.

i make it 180 with AQo, she calls after a second or two.

flop: A 10 7r

chk, i bet 160, she minraises. i have 1700 left before the minraise, she has me covered.

thoughts?

fsuplayer

[greg nice]

are you ready to play a big pot with TP2K? if not i dont understand the reraise.

reraises are so often big pairs, coupled with your big underbet on the flop, villian may have you on KK,QQ. id call the minraise and play it from there.

[fsuplayer]

sry, i messed up, I bet 260 on the flop.

[aggie]

For those of us who don’t know Linda 12, details would be helpful. If she’s a complete unknown, I’d call with the intention of folding to a big bet on the turn.

[fsuplayer]

no, she's a regular. an okay postflop player, but has been running hotter than hell this past week.

not too many details on her postflop play, as I am still trying to figure it out myself. i have seen her CR several times with pair+fl. draws and st. flush draws, but never really on a dry board, so it kind of froze me up.

folding is not an option on the flop, just wondering if making it 800-900 or so and folding to a reraise would be better than calling?

[psuasskicker]

Ugly hand. Her min-raise is saying one of two things to me, both of them indicating she has nothing less than an Ace:
- "I have a weakish Ace (AJ, A9) and want to push you out or make you pay if you have a big pocket pair, but not lose too much if you have a better Ace."
- "I have a strong Ace beaten and want to milk you for all your money."

Problem with reraising her is that you won't get called by anything you beat. If she's on AJ or A9 (viable opening hands from the SB) she'll just fold figuring you have a better Ace. If she's on AK or AQ she might fold, but she may very well continue along. And if she can beat AK then she's going to follow you cause I doubt she'll wind up with MUBS and fold thinking you have AA.

This is a pot you need to keep small. I wouldn't reraise it. A call is begging her to bet on the turn, though, which is an ugly proposition cause if she's a solid post-flop player that turn bet should be nothing less than $500, which means it'll cost you $760 to make it to the river, or $260 just to fold on the turn.

I don't like your options here. You're in a situation where you're gonna win what's in the pot or lose a massive amount of money if you continue with the hand. Honestly I'd probably just drop it at this point.

FWIW, I would not have reraised PF, and would not have bet that much on the flop. AQ TP2K isn't a hand you want to play a big pot with unless you're against a terrible player. Your PF reraise and flop bet build the pot very large, making your decisions very tough. I hate doing that with AQ, even if the game was short-handed.

- C -

[maranello11]

FSUplayer

I feel the min-raise my be a sign of two-pair, is that possible for this type of player. Would she raise with A10 out of the small blind? You said she has been running hot, it is very possible and looks like a way she would play it, figuring you for AK, KK AQ AJ. If you re-raise to 800-900 like you said it looks to me you will be playing for your all stack with AQ. Do you want that?

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
folding is not an option on the flop, just wondering if making it 800-900 or so and folding to a reraise would be better than calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, that was the first thing I thought too. The problem is I hate committing such a large portion of my stack with a hand that I don’t like all that much. If she has a big hand she can call, check the turn and if you check behind, she can still put you all in on the river. It would be hard to lay the hand down at that point.

I think when you call the minraise you are screaming “AK or AQ”….I think that’s what you want to be screaming. If she checks the turn, check behind and call a river bet. If she checks turn and river, value bet.

This is tricky because there is still a pretty good chance she will move you off the best hand. Is she tricky enough to minraise the flop with the intention of bluffing big on the turn? If so, maybe reraising the flop is the best play after all.

So after all this reasoning, I still don’t know what the hell you should do….Sorry

[fsuplayer]

when i said that its standard for her, i meant, opening from the SB, which she does >75% of the time, i didnt mean her raise size.

is a reraise there with position there with AQ good? im thinking yes.

[maranello11]

Hearing that, re-raise and see where you stand. There is $1140 in the pot, a raise to $800 may take it down, otherwise a call by her and a check, Which you will probably push all-in on the turn? Will be a nice pot.