Nut flush on double-paired board?

[nietzreznor]

Pokerstars 2/4 (6 handed)

I am UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and $400. I raise to $15, Villain (no reads, also has $400) calls, everyone else folds.

Flop ($35): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet $30, villain calls.

Turn ($90): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet $50, villain calls.

River ($185): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I...?


A few questions:

-given my line, what's my play here?
-what line do you guys take on the turn? Sometimes I will c/r all-in here, but I've been finding lately that people at this level (or, rather, esp. at the 1/2) don't lay down very often to that action, so I've been doing big turn c/r with my big hands more and my semi-bluffs yet. any thoughts on different lines here?

thanks

[Bukem_]

Don't like turn bet size. As played, I'd bet $100 on river.

Bets $100.

Dumle

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't like turn bet size

[/ QUOTE ]

How much would you bet instead? I think, at the time, I used the 1/2 pot or so bet as a blocker. I didn't want to c/r allin, but I thought it might a) get me card cheaper than what he might bet if I checked, and b) might fold out hands beating me (something like 77 that called on the flop hoping to pick off a c-bet).

thoughts?

[ahnuld]

Check. Why bet? you think a J calls? If he raises you, ur [censored], so check call or check fold. Most J's check behind, but QT may bet and a worse flsuh may bet.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
Check. Why bet? you think a J calls? If he raises you, ur [censored], so check call or check fold. Most J's check behind, but QT may bet and a worse flsuh may bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess thats the issue--QT may or may not bluff here. a jack doesn't bet here I don't think, but i'm thinking there are plenty of players at this level who will call with a jack. a worse flush may bet, but i would think a worse flush would be more likely to call than bet on this board.

why am i [censored] if i get raised? I still have $200 behind, it seems like an easy fold... do you think that I get bluff-raised here often?

I'd say bet. QT isn't likely to bet since there's too many possible hands that will call a river bet. Smaller flush may bet but it probably won't be that much. And he will call it anyway.

How can a J not call if he's been doing it the whole way?
A raise would either be J9 or some badly played 9 or set. I'd have to fold to a raise but I think there's too much value lost by checking in this scenario.

So Bet/Fold is my line. If I knew villian is more than capable of firing a QT or a jack at the river (but wouldn't call a bet) then I would check/call. But there's more of the former than the latter.

Why bet?

Because villain will fold lots of hands that beat yours. There is a good chance he called the flop with a small pair or the like, to snap off Hero's c-bet.

Dumle

[Bukem_]

QT probably doesn't bluff.

Most weak players(and it appears this guy is) will check behind with Jack, or a flush. You are missing way too much value not bettign that river. No one at this level is going to bluff raise you out with a worse hand.

The turn bet is just a pot bloater that gives you no info, no fold equity, and leaves you oop in a spot where you no idea what is going on on most rivers. Bets like this will get torn apart vs good players.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Because villain will fold lots of hands that beat yours.

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

Full houses call, here.