Bubble - Sit-N-Go Analyzer 2nd opinion

Scuba Chuck · #1 09-07-2005, 01:57 AM

I have always ***planned*** to play this hand this way when I got here. Now that I got here, I want to be sure I'm looking at it correctly.

BTW, SGA says this is a push. And it's really not all that close. +1.1%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) $33 tableconverter

Button (t2960)
Hero (t520)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t520 (All-In), BB calls t370.

Flop: (t1040) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1040) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1040) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1040

Here's where I get stuck. SGA says pushing is worth $3.31 to me. Essentially my take on this is the following. Folding here, guarantees me third place (and not very likely any higher). The variance involved with pushing gives me an extra $3 in the long run. But as I think about it more, I think there might be something a little flawed in this analysis.

Push/win a showdown increases my chances at 2nd place, and maybe first. This is probably worth $3.30 of the $3.31.

Push/steal blinds doesn't change my opportunities for 2nd place that much. I am not in that much a better position than before pushing.

Fold. We know what this is worth.

So here's my conclusion. I play a lot of SNGs a month. At least 1,000. This year, I've played about 7,000 SNGs so far. From memory, this is only the 2nd time I've been in a situation like this (maybe that's because I lost the other one too - so it could have been more). SGA says that if I play my hand like this every time, it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

chisness · #2 09-07-2005, 02:07 AM

take the $3

pergesu · #3 09-07-2005, 02:08 AM

Not if it really is that infrequent. It's like when Ed Miller says "If you folded every time you flopped a royal flush" then it wouldn't be that terrible of an error, because it happens so infrequently that it's insignifant.

But I do think it's important to think about it, because you sharpen your poker analysis skills.

ace_in_the_hole · #4 09-07-2005, 02:10 AM

Just wanted to bump because this is a great post. I too have pondored things like this and hope to see this post spark a great discussion. Although I would like to fold here I don't think I ever would, a much better chance with QQ but still tough. I spend so much time training my brain to make +ev plays. Folding here seems like a brain tease. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

curtains · #5 09-07-2005, 02:14 AM

Folding doesn't guarantee you at least 3rd place.

zac777 · #6 09-07-2005, 02:18 AM

The short answer is yes. If you look at the situation objectively and believe that it's worth $3 in the long run, then every time you make it (and all the other tiny decisions like it), you're earning that much.

The fact that you play 1000s of SNGs should make it easier to deal with losing in a spot like this, since you will see the results of all of those tiny decisions adding up.

Basically you're asking if it's better to have 3 dollars or 0. Unless the psychological hit you take from losing this 18% of the time causes you to play badly enough to tilt away 15 bucks or so, then I can't see a reason not to take it.

Scuba Chuck · #7 09-07-2005, 02:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding doesn't guarantee you at least 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that your final answer?

TT_fold · #8 09-07-2005, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have always ***planned*** to play this hand this way when I got here. Now that I got here, I want to be sure I'm looking at it correctly.

BTW, SGA says this is a push. And it's really not all that close. +1.1%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) $33 tableconverter

Button (t2960)
Hero (t520)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t520 (All-In), BB calls t370.

Flop: (t1040) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1040) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1040) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1040

Here's where I get stuck. SGA says pushing is worth $3.31 to me. Essentially my take on this is the following. Folding here, guarantees me third place (and not very likely any higher). The variance involved with pushing gives me an extra $3 in the long run. But as I think about it more, I think there might be something a little flawed in this analysis.

Push/win a showdown increases my chances at 2nd place, and maybe first. This is probably worth $3.30 of the $3.31.

Push/steal blinds doesn't change my opportunities for 2nd place that much. I am not in that much a better position than before pushing.

Fold. We know what this is worth.

So here's my conclusion. I play a lot of SNGs a month. At least 1,000. This year, I've played about 7,000 SNGs so far. From memory, this is only the 2nd time I've been in a situation like this (maybe that's because I lost the other one too - so it could have been more). SGA says that if I play my hand like this every time, it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I don't follow your logic here.

As long as you are properly bankrolled for this level (and with 7,000 SNGs under your belt it would follow that you have a sizeable $33 bankroll), variance should not dissuade you from pushing in this spot.

I can't see how anyone who understands the concept of EV could argue otherwise.

johnny005 · #9 09-07-2005, 03:39 AM

Even if your saying it doesnt really happen that often..
Who is saying that the shortie is gonna go out when he is BB. he could survive both the BB and SB and now your in trouble when it comes back around to you. I really think this is a no brainer

bennies · #10 09-07-2005, 05:50 AM

I'd say it's a close push.

After some calcs, my guess is that you bust about 10% of the time when you push (and, for once, I actually don't think bb's calling range matters very much as long as he folds at least 1/3 of the time).

Also, I think you bust about 10% of the time if you don't push.

Give tiny stack another 50 chips and this becomes a clear push imo. Take away half his "stack" and I would fold this (that is, if I could think WHILE playing which is not always the case [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img])