Semi Bluff 1/3

phillydilly · #1 07-19-2005, 09:23 AM

First post in a series of semibluffs.
These are all against the morning players, who seem to have a slight clue compared to the evening players
This may be standard, but I'm just making the NL jump,
No specific read on the villain

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Hero ($28.05)
UTG+2 ($21.15)
MP1 ($23.55)
MP2 ($23.35)
MP3 ($29.15)
CO ($38.60)
Button ($7.15)
SB ($15.50)
BB ($20.65)
UTG ($2.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10. UTG posts a blind of $0.35.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero raises to $1, UTG+2 calls $1, 7 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($2.70) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG+2 raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, UTG+2 calls $16.15 (All-In), Hero calls $8.15.

fimbulwinter · #2 07-19-2005, 09:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First post in a series of semibluffs.
These are all against the morning players, who seem to have a slight clue compared to the evening players
This may be standard, but I'm just making the NL jump,
No specific read on the villain

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Hero ($28.05)
UTG+2 ($21.15)
MP1 ($23.55)
MP2 ($23.35)
MP3 ($29.15)
CO ($38.60)
Button ($7.15)
SB ($15.50)
BB ($20.65)
UTG ($2.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10. UTG posts a blind of $0.35.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero raises to $1, UTG+2 calls $1, 7 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($2.70) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG+2 raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, UTG+2 calls $16.15 (All-In), Hero calls $8.15.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just push the flop after i get raised.

TheWorstPlayer · #3 07-19-2005, 10:00 AM

No point in 3-betting without pushing. In general, I love a lead/3-bet push with a nice draw. Really balances your game nicely. However, I'm not sure how much I love it here because a set is pretty likely here for a guy who called your raise preflop and then min-raised the flop. He's giving you good odds to draw, so I would just take them.

mbraudel · #4 07-19-2005, 10:28 AM

TWP: Help me understand your comment that he's offering you good odds to draw here?

You're assuming that your opponent has a set, which means you need to hit your flush. Merely pairing your overcards won't win the pot for you. Is that right?

There's $8.70 in the pot before you push. You push an additional $25, which Villain calls. Final pot is $58-ish, meaning you have to win 25/58 = 43% of the time for this move to pay off.

You have 9 outs twice, so 18 outs.

18 outs/ 47 unknown cards is 38% chance of making the flush by the river.

That's less than the pot odds give us.

Since we're all in, there are no more implied odds to look at.

Will opponents fold to our push, often enough, to make up for loss that the pot odds don't give us?

Or, did I screw up the math?

Thanks.

RedRum · #5 07-19-2005, 10:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
TWP: Help me understand your comment that he's offering you good odds to draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's referring to the minraise on the flop, just call his $2.00 if you think he has a big made hand, don't 3-bet where you're likely behind with only 8 outs.

Drink More,
RedRum

TheWorstPlayer · #6 07-19-2005, 11:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TWP: Help me understand your comment that he's offering you good odds to draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's referring to the minraise on the flop, just call his $2.00 if you think he has a big made hand, don't 3-bet where you're likely behind with only 8 outs.

Drink More,
RedRum

[/ QUOTE ]
This is correct. The min-raise is terrible because it allows terrific odds to draw out on him. And it also indicates a big hand, in my experience, providing fantastic implied odds. That's why people who min-raise are generally donks. It's generally a terrible move. So why correct it for him by pushing?