3/6 -- value bet river?

detruncate · #1 10-01-2005, 05:56 PM

After a goodly break, Operation Suck Less has begun. As such, I'm going to try to be much more active on this forum. Please feel free to call me out or level creative insults in my general direction as is deemed necessary and/or entertaining.

First 3/6 session in a while. I only have a couple orbits worth of stats on UTG, but know essentially nothing other than that he's played maybe 40% of his hands in 2.5 orbits and has and shown a little aggression pf but next to none post flop. SB is unknown.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, SB calls, 1 folds, UTG calls.

I was a bit unsure about this since I didn't have much info about UTG's raising standards.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Overcards + BD flush draw + very weak BD straight draw getting 12:1 closing the action. Anyone like a raise?

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls.

Seems to be a reasonable chance I'm ahead with the lack of either flop or turn aggression from UTG -- he probably raises an overpair on the flop unless he's waiting for the turn and chickens out when the A falls, and there's a good chance a big A raises the turn unless he's super passive.

SB might have a 2, but his pf CC out of the SB + fastplay would tend to make this unlikely for an average player. 45 is possible I guess if he's loose. Maybe a flush draw. Maybe a medium pair or a 3. You'd think the A might dissuade him from betting given the PF action unless he's not worried about it, but he could also be aggressive or tricky or clueless.

River: (12.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero ???

SB probably pays me off with any made hand he called the turn with. 45 is fairly unlikely after he doesn't 3-bet the turn, and I think he also 3-bets with trips most of the time (and probably won't raise the river since he didn't unless he's sneaky tricky).

Again, UTG probably pays me off with any made hand I'm ahead of once he called the turn. He's also more likely to have a made hand than a draw I think. I don't want to see an Ace as I'm probably going to be outkicked unless he's very aggressive pf. The question seems to be whether he calls the turn with PPs or only with Aces and draws.

Can we find a value bet here vs these players?

Thanks in advance. Apologies if this is obvious, I'm reevaluating my river play.

W. Deranged · #2 10-01-2005, 05:59 PM

I mean... yeah... I guess I'm betting this river. But that doesn't get at the real heart of this post:

WHAT THE [censored] ARE YOU DOING THREE-BETTING AN UNKNOWN PROBABLY PASSIVE UTG RAISER WITH A9?

That's all I've got to say.

detruncate · #3 10-01-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I mean... yeah... I guess I'm betting this river. But that doesn't get at the real heart of this post:

WHAT THE [censored] ARE YOU DOING THREE-BETTING AN UNKNOWN PROBABLY PASSIVE UTG RAISER WITH A9?

That's all I've got to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

The most dangerous known quantity was a TAGgish player OTB and the BB looked fairly competent over a small datamined sample size. I figured it would be better to try to isolate the apparently loose player, even if I was unsure about their aggression level. Thought it was probably a bad move as soon as I made it, but it's not something I do often and an easy error to correct.

Thanks for your input.

W. Deranged · #4 10-01-2005, 06:22 PM

I didn't mean to shout too much, but I think this sort of play actually could qualify as a "big leak."

A9s does have some high card strength, but it is very likely to be dominated.

Loose players, particularly one's who are passive post-flop, have very different standards between what they'll limp/cold-call with and what they'll raise with. It's part of the reason they suck. Even a loose player, unless a known maniac, who is raising UTG probably has a pretty decent hand. It is almost definitely one which is ahead of A9 on average. The suitedness of the hand changes nothing really, as you'll be playing a short pot anyway and won't be getting great odds to hit a big hand like a flush. Also note that even lose-aggressive types will often be raising UTG with hands that hurt yours. Loosies might get high PFR numbers by raising hands like ATo under-the-gun and so on. Also note that since the player is loose and passive, raising here is not likely to buy all that much post-flop fold equity, and hence you'll probably need to showdown the best hand to win here.

What I think you may have revealed here is that you are overdoing the "isolation" idea. It is true that "expert" pre-flop play involves looking for opportunities to play short-handed pots against looser/weaker/worse players. But you need to be very thoughtful about what kind of hand you have, what kind of hand your opponent is likely to have, and what kind of bad player they are. It can be great to isolate players with loose raising standards pre-flop by three-betting. On the other hand, it may well be negative EV to try to isolate players with loose calling standards but decent raising standards by three-betting. The difference is very important.

detruncate · #5 10-01-2005, 06:54 PM

You didn't shout too much... and in any case I'm a big boy and have been around the forums a while.

The good news is that a lot of this is down to rust and overexcitement -- I'd just finished my first session in weeks and had spent the last bit running over a few weak tighties 3 or 4 way at a friend's 1/2 table as it broke up. I was also pretty sure it was a bad play as soon as I made it. Any doubt was down to the dead money cushion.

I'm actually far more likely to be way too tight vs a raise -- my 'gap' is probably larger than it should be. Usually a 3-bet would be restricted to big PPs, AK(s), maybe AQs until I got a better handle on my opponent. I overvalued 2.33 SB in dead money and made a bad play that I won't repeat.

The bottom line is even if this type of play isn't a big leak, I made a poor decision without thinking enough about it... which is a big leak and something I'm working hard to correct.

Thanks again.

goofball · #6 10-01-2005, 10:47 PM

the preflop action is absolutely dreadful. FOld already.

Betting the river is INSANELY easy. If you aren't betting that river card which ones are you betting???

THe other two streets play themselves.

Delzek15 · #7 10-01-2005, 11:08 PM

I don't see why you wouldn't bet. The 2 is unlikely plus the flush draw didn't come. SB is probably going to call you with his lesser hand... Maybe a medium PP.

Shillx · #8 10-01-2005, 11:15 PM

but I think this sort of play actually could qualify as a "big leak."

This is crazy. Though I do agree that it is probably a leak, it is a very small one at most. If you always made it 3-bets with A9s it would still be a small leak (think of how often it comes up). If you always 3-bet with weakish to marginal hands it becomes a big problem.

OP: Pretty easy river bet.

detruncate · #9 10-02-2005, 05:05 AM

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, SB calls, 1 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB.
Results:
Hero doesn't show.
Hero wins 13.00 BB.

Thanks to all who replied. I've already discussed the pf stuff, and I agree that the river bet seemed fairly straight forward... but as I said I've been reevaluating my river thought process and figured this was a good place to start.

W. Deranged · #10 10-02-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but I think this sort of play actually could qualify as a "big leak."

This is crazy. Though I do agree that it is probably a leak, it is a very small one at most. If you always made it 3-bets with A9s it would still be a small leak (think of how often it comes up). If you always 3-bet with weakish to marginal hands it becomes a big problem.

OP: Pretty easy river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point is that if the OP is regularly three-betting UTG raisers with mediocre hands in an attempt to "isolate" weak players that is a big leak, because it is a situation that will come up quite frequently. My comment has nothing to do with A9s and everything to do with the OP's three-betting standards and approach to pre-flop play. I was quite conscious of the big leak/small leak distinction when I made that comment.