What are the chances?

[primate]

Party Poker $50nl ring game, full stacks. Played today just prior to posting.

Dealt pocket aces, poor sucker has KK and we're both all in preflop. I hit a set and scoop.

Very next hand guess what?

Pocket A's. This time another sucker raises in front of me. I reraise hoping that he thinks i'm making a move on him. He calls and we see a flop.

322 rainbow.

He checks and I bet 2/3rd pot. He goes all in and I call thinking I'm up against KK,QQ,JJ.

He turns over pocket 3's.. he has a set. But wait! salvation is found in the river which brings an ACE baby! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Pay day! Pocket Aces dealt twice in a row, I hit the set both times and get fully paid off both times.

What are the odds? Any other similar stories?

[jkkkk]

i posted up a thread a few days ago when i got dealt kk with someone else having rockets hand after hand.

won the first one (sucked out like a TRUE pro)

and lost the second, though that one was against a short stack, thankfully.

[swolfe]

unity

[primate]

anyone good at maths? What are the odds?

[Chicago Kid]

Lemme see....Odds of being dealt AA= .0045 (.45%)

Odds of turning a PP turning a set= .108 (10.8%)

So, the chance of doing it once is .000486, or (really small--four one-hundreds of a percent)

Chance of doing it on consecutive hands (I think you just multiply the chance of the event by itself)--.000000236196. I think we're entering snowball's chance in the Sahara territory here.

[kurto]

Usually my incredible odds work the other way around. Like the night I 3 hands (2 full houses and a straight) to quads.

The odds of that happening in one have got to be astronomical.

[EchoOfThunder]

Odds of hitting aces are 1 in 220.

Odds of hitting aces on consecutive hands is 1 in 220^2 which is 48400 if my mental calculation is correct.

Given a random hand, chances of winning with aces is 85%, so winning 2 random hands is roughly 70%.

Therefore, i'd list the odds of this as ~~ 1 in 1.5*48400, or about 1 in 70,000.

[LetYouDown]

220-to-1 != 1/220.

[jpg7n16]

[ QUOTE ]
Usually my incredible odds work the other way around. Like the night I 3 hands (2 full houses and a straight) to quads.

The odds of that happening in one have got to be astronomical.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've got to mean that you lost with three hands to quads. Cause the odds of you turning a flopped straight into quads by the river are VERY slim. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[EchoOfThunder]

i dont have a calculator so im not going to bother squaring 221