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  #1  
Old 08-30-2005, 12:47 PM
JooWish622 JooWish622 is offline
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Default 92s, no pair, no draw. Good line?

3 handed, 2-4 nl, FTP. Villian has 300 behind and I feel like he made a move on me a few orbits ago when the board came AA8, i had 58, 4 handed pot, I bet on the button, he called OOP and then bet the turn, I folded like a girl.
I have 700 behind.

Hero dealt black 92s on the button. Villian is in SB. Hero raises to 12, Villian calls, BB folds.

(Pot 28) Flop is 762 all diamonds. Villian checks, Hero bets 20. VIllian quickly calls.

Turn is a Jack hearts. Villian bets 20. I call because I don't put Villian on a flush as this is a terrible line to take, and I put VIllian on a jack here about 15 percent of the time only. He could have a 6 in this spot but I feel like with my call, I could probably blow him off the hand on the river. I don't raise here because if he has a hand like diamond+overcard, I dont think I can blow him off of it and he might just reraise all in before I can make a play at this river.

Anyway, river is a 9, he bets 90, I insta call, he shows Ad Qs.

I get yelled about for the next half hour about how im terrible and wind up the day about 300 more from him only.

So anyway, given the river cards that will help his hand and ruin my play, what percentage of the time do I need to be able to blow him off his holding given the chances of him improving. I feel like he will check his A or Q if he hits them on the river 50 percent of the time and I will waste 90 on a potsized bet trying to blow him off of it. I will fold 100 percent of the time if the river is a diamond so I only waste my 20 call on the turn. I will raise with air if this rags off to 250 if he bets 90 on the river.

So, how do I calculate this EV of calling with no pair no draw? I feel like he will bet 40-50 if he hits his Ace or Queen as a value bet and I would raise to 150 and he would call. I wont bluff the Q of diamonds.
here are the important points
- he is semibluffing 85 percent of the time, has a jack or a legit hand 15 percent of the time and will value bet for 40-50 on the river, same if he hits his non-flush Q or an A.
- He will fold a 6 on the river regardless if he checks or bets since I will raise
- I wont bluff a river diamond if he bets or checks
- I'm just calling if I hit a 9, not my deuce, not the diamond.
- if this river rags or if its a non-diamond king, he will bet 90, i'll raise to 250, he folds of the 85 percent of hte time that I'm right.
Does this work out to a good play or was it crazy?
I have a feeling this works out to a good play because of the large percentage of the time he has a weak hand given his prior play and the board+the clarity of his improvement if he hits a diamond+the overall little chance of his improvement+ his willingness to bluff this river
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  #2  
Old 08-30-2005, 01:16 PM
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Default Re: 92s, no pair, no draw. Good line?

Isn't it a better line to just call. I'm a little confused about whether or not you have a pair of twos because of the title of the thread, but if you do, why don't you just call a bet on the river (assuming no diamond) given your read?
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  #3  
Old 08-30-2005, 01:20 PM
JooWish622 JooWish622 is offline
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Default Re: 92s, no pair, no draw. Good line?

and... I messed up the post.
Flop is 763 all diamonds...really wish I could still edit that.
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