downswing, need confidence

MattC · #1 03-02-2005, 08:15 PM

in the midst of my downswing, is this correct play?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Nick Royale · #2 03-02-2005, 08:18 PM

I would raise the turn... good/bad?

brettbrettr · #3 03-02-2005, 08:22 PM

Sure, raise the turn. Personally I raise the flop but given a read I can see why waiting might be fine. I cannot however see why waiting til the river is the right play.

This is silly in my opinion.

Harv72b · #4 03-02-2005, 08:23 PM

I raise the turn as well.

Waiting to the river to raise would be a good play if the board was less coordinated and you were up against a tough player who would fold a worse hand to a turn raise. With this board and against what I assume was an unknown opponent, I'd be a bit nervous about giving him a free shot at catching trips or two pair, and wouldn't be as worried that he'd fold on the turn if I raised there.

MattC · #5 03-02-2005, 08:50 PM

Reasons are as follows: first if hes bluffing if you raise the flop or the turn then he can get away from it early. By just calling you encourage him to keep bluffing, you must usually have the best hand here since he didnt reraise.

the second reason is if say he does have a better hand, call call then raise the river looks pretty scary to him, most players even with strong hands will just call the raise fearing you sand bagged the whole way.

So in conclusion by raising early you dont gain many bets if he folds. its heads up so you want him to draw, i think my hand is strong enough to let him draw. by waiting to raise the river, if he has the best hand the whole time, and he just calls which most people would you lose the least amount of money, whereas if you raised the turn or the flop you could lose more. also by waiting to raise the river, if he betted the whole way, hes more bound to call the river raise then the turn raise thus gaining you one extra bet.

if he stops betting into you after the flop, that means even if you raise the flop was gonna fold anyways so you dont lose any bets. same goes for the turn.

his odds arent there for him to try to draw to two pair or a set. Hes costing himself money by trying to draw to it when he doesnt have the best hand and has no folding equity. also he if hes on a draw he might check call the turn in fear of a raise. This board could easily have hit me and my flop call shouldn't convince anyone im behind. The way hes playing, his hand seems made. could be top pair weak kicker, could be middle pair plus straight draw, with of course tainted outs.

does this reasoning not have any merit?

Harv72b · #6 03-02-2005, 09:08 PM

The HPFAP discussion is exactly the example I was thinking of...point is, most 3/6 Party players aren't very good, and won't fold to the turn raise even if they're just betting with A high, let alone with a pair. Without a read on your opponent, I wouldn't be so quick to credit him with the ability to lay down a hand he's bet on consecutive streets to a raise.

The coordinated board also worries me. I don't think that a turn raise is likely to protect your hand from a gutshot draw or even a hand like QJ (neither is likely to fold in a blind battle, especially if the gutshot is A high), but it is likely to let you know where you stand--if he 3-bets the turn on this board, you should know that you're likely in trouble vs. a set or two pair.

Regarding his drawing odds, most players tend to throw those out the window in a HU blinds battle--there's just too good a chance that A high is actually the best hand.

If you'd flopped a set with KK or QQ, I'd agree that slowplaying til the river is a solid play even on this board vs. an unknown. But TPTK is not so robust a hand that you can count on it still being good after the river.

MattC · #7 03-02-2005, 09:14 PM

but thats the point if hes two pair or a set hell still prob call the river fearing the straight or something like that thus saving one bet where as if you raise the turn get 3 bet then call the river.

with this line you maximize when your ahead and minimize when your behind.

Harv72b · #8 03-02-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but thats the point if hes two pair or a set hell still prob call the river fearing the straight or something like that thus saving one bet where as if you raise the turn get 3 bet then call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens when you get 3-bet on the river? And there's no way of knowing on the turn that the river will bring a scare card like the J or a diamond.

You like the play and that's fine...I'm just putting in my 2 cents. IMO you're taking an advanced concept and misapplying it in a situation where the basics will work just as well, if not better. HPFAP offers some brilliant insight and advice and should be required reading for anyone serious about their game, but many of the concepts discussed in it are wasted against your average SS player.

MattC · #9 03-02-2005, 09:40 PM

if he 3 bets the river, you know your more behind then if he 3 bets you on the turn i think because of how scary the river raise looks to him. plus ur still losing the same amount of money if you showdown. plus a hand someone might 3 bet on the turn might not do so on the river thus again saving yourself a bet.

MattC · #10 03-02-2005, 09:43 PM

are you really gonna fold TPTK in a steal stituation to a 3 bet on the turn here? I would showdown this everytime i dunno about you. unless of course this guy was a big fat giant boulder.