Running a Bluff Against the One Player Who Can Bust You

PokrLikeItsProse · #1 07-28-2005, 01:59 AM

This is a situation I run into which causes me to second-guess myself. I am in the top ten or twenty in an online tournament and we are about one hour away from the money. Let's say my stack is about 50xBB.

I have a hand like TT or JJ and the preflop action makes me believe I am up against a strong hand which probably has me beat in the hands of the one player at the table who can bust me. I have position on him.

Flop comes Axx, where the other cards are lower than my pair. Two cards are of the same suit, making a flush draw possible. I know my opponent well enough to know that his check means that he does not like the ace and that he is almost certainly not slow-playing a set or top pair.

My opponent is savvy enough to see through a probing bet as weakness and might even check-raise me all-in. I feel like a pot-sized bet might take it down, but there is always a chance I could be wrong or that my opponent will call me down unless I am willing to potentially risk all my chips. I feel that I have at least an 80% chance that I can take this pot down if I either push on the flop or bet half-pot on the flop with the intention of shoving on the turn. However, there is always a chance that my read is wrong or that my opponent will read me properly and call, knowing that I am capable of making this move.

Usually, I end up checking it down, unless I make a set, thinking that, even though the pot is fairly large, I feel like I have an edge over the rest of the table and I am better off ensuring that I survive. But I feel like I am making a mistake by not making a play for this pot the way I would if I had my opponent severely outchipped or if we were already in the money.

KyleM · #2 07-28-2005, 10:57 AM

He knows that you know that he can bust you, so he likely believes you won't bluff him. So bluff him [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

danger_mouse · #3 07-28-2005, 11:41 AM

I'd like to see the exact pre-flop action that convinces you that your JJ or 1010 is beat. You can rarely know this for sure. Me? In most cases (withe the flush draw on the board), I'm betting 0.66-.9 of the pot here. Pushing in this spot, imho, is a big mistake. If you are that plunger-happy, a savy opponent might check into you, hoping for you to committ suicide. 50BB gives you plenty of ammo to figure out where you are at in the hand.

Flopzilla · #4 07-28-2005, 12:31 PM

He is wondering if you have an Ace...did your preflop action indicate you could have one???

If you had Ax, how would you bet it?

PokrLikeItsProse · #5 07-28-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see the exact pre-flop action that convinces you that your JJ or 1010 is beat. You can rarely know this for sure. Me? In most cases (withe the flush draw on the board), I'm betting 0.66-.9 of the pot here. Pushing in this spot, imho, is a big mistake. If you are that plunger-happy, a savy opponent might check into you, hoping for you to committ suicide. 50BB gives you plenty of ammo to figure out where you are at in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was the size of his raise, which was just begging for a call. Plus, he was relatively tight and had show in the past that he would just call with hands like 88 and AQ.

PokrLikeItsProse · #6 07-28-2005, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He is wondering if you have an Ace...did your preflop action indicate you could have one???

If you had Ax, how would you bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given my read, I would make small teaser bets that I felt he could call, both to get the maximum if he has KK (which he did) and to minimize my loss if I am wrong and he has AK or KK. It might go something like 1/2 or 1/3 pot on the flop, check the turn, small bet on the river. Obviously, I don't want him to call, so I can't bet the same way. Unfortunately, I didn't have a card of the two-flush on the board so that if a third card came, I could semi-bluff the turn.