Laying Down KK preflop?

[PoBoy321]

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This still seems a bit fuzzy. What is the frequency of all-in 3-bets with less than AA or KK?
Is it approximatly 1 time in 2, or 1 in 10, or 1 in 100? Based on poker-tracker data rather than just "I see QTo all the time".

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It's hard to come up with an exact number. I think something players, especaially at the lower levels, often forget is that they're playing a game against people, not numbers. While you might be able to say that "A 3-bet all-in at a typical NL50 game means AA 34.8293837% of the time, KK 42.29339% of the time and other holdings the remainder of the time," against certain players, a 3-bet means AA 100% of the time, and against other players, a 3-bet means anything BUT AA.

[srm80]

live and die with cowboys baby. guns blazin, no matter what. If he has AA, then oh well. I think you will make more money against underpairs than you lose against AA.

I understand this. However, the consensus in threads such as this one is almost always "never fold KK to an all-in re-raise because you won't often be against AA". This is clearly a generalization based on the overall numbers, not a specific read. Indeed, even in this thread posters have advised against trusting your read if it leads you to consider laying down KK pre-flop.

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I think something players, especaially at the lower levels, often forget is that they're playing a game against people, not numbers.

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That is true but it is not the point. The point is are you loosing money those times you call an all-in re-raise with KK?

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I think point to make is that if you are losing money over 25k hands or so with KK, it isn't because you keep running into AA. You have other problems to address.

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[PoBoy321]

I understand what you're saying, and believe me, I'm not advocating folds with KK. What I'm saying is that a read can make a huge difference and without one, it would take a VERY special circumstance to consider laying down KK pre-flop.

Well, if I'm getting re-reraised by a rock with a 2% PFR, I'm dumping that KK. Of course, this may be why I'm still at small stakes and not mid-stakes, but I doubt it.

They are few and far between, but there are some situations where you can spot AA preflop, and I have no problem with taking advantage of them.

Villian stats 10/2/1.0

Hero is dealt KK

Blind is .50
Fold, fold...
Villian (UTG+2) raises to $2
Folds all round
Hero (Button) raises $8
Fold, fold..
Villian raises all in ($50)

You'd call that?




If it saves you even $50 over 10k hands, isn't it worth doing?

(disclaimer: I am not an authority, nor do I claim to be. But I throw this theory forward for the class to mull over)

[4_2_it]

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The point is are you loosing money those times you call an all-in re-raise with KK?

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I think you lose more money folding them to every 3-bet. Reading villains is an inexact science and folding the second nuts pre-flop is not in my playbook. I have won 80% of time I have been dealt KK. While folding to a 3-bet might increase my win %, it will not increase my earn which is more important.

(All odds approx for ease of discussion):

You are 200:1 to get KK. If you are 6-handed than the odds that one of the other 5 players holding AA is 40:1 (200/5). The odds that one of the five has any pocket pair is 3.2:1. The odds are that villain has a worse hand. Our disagreement is the percentage of villains who would 3-bet without AA. Okay, my math is failing me, but what percentage of the time does villain have to 3-bet without AA before it is profitable? I think it is lower than you think. I am fairly certain it is below 75%.

[wslee00]

fyi - don't know if they changed the faq already, but here's the entry in there about KK pre-flop:

Q: Okay, so I raise 4xBB preflop with Kings and the player to my immediate left raises. Then another player goes all in. Do I fold?

A: Depends on the opponents. Folding Kings preflop in fear of Aces isn't a liked topic in the forum. Here are some threads that deal with the subject of Kings Vs. potential Aces.

Click here, here, and here.

Sometimes laying Kings down preflop is correct. Most of the time it is not. There is roughly a 3.4% chance, at a full table, that your Kings are up against Aces. Make a decision and go with your instinct.

[pokernose]

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I think you lose more money folding them to every 3-bet.

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I don't think anyone is advocating a fold to every 3-bet. If I'm in a situation with no reads and the pot is three bet, my money is going in with KK every time. It might even be going in with QQ.

As PoBoy pointed out sometimes you have a read that says someone will only make the all-in move with certain hands. Let's say it's aces, kings, or queens. You have a choice here. You can chip away at this person's stack all day long by playing your read or you can take a shot at pulling down the whole stack at once (by risking your whole stack). If I have a solid read on someone, I will sometimes take a safe -EV play knowing that it will set up many safe +EV plays later on.

When you feel like you have a solid read on someone, you will eventually get their money if you are patient and play your read. Why mix it up with a very tight player when you can use your stack to chop away small wins against him and get some big wins off of the looser players?

I just could never see getting a good enough read live or online to fold KK preflop. I'm always concerned, but I just always go forward.