Back To Basics. Annoyingly simple preflop question.

[flawless_victory]

OMG
of course
you
raise

[El Ishmael]

[ QUOTE ]
OMG
of course
you
raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I love you flawvic.

[Grisgra]

The consensus seems to be that ATs is a marginal but +EV raise in this situation. There were one or two folders, probably a bit more "Duh I raise with even less" folks, but for the most part this was right on the line for most.

I ran some Pokerstoves, and against a typical TAG preflop range for the HJ in a 5-handed game I'm running almost exactly 50-50. Against a good player, I'm not sure that's enough; yes, I have position, but there are three people behind me that are perfectly able to pick up a real hand.

I think that this player's PFR stat has thrown some people off -- yes, he's a 35/30 player, but the difference between a 35/30 player and a 30/20 player isn't so much the play in the HJ but more likely blind play (a lot more defense and 3-betting from the SB and BB.)

Long story short, I 3-bet, the BB called, he called, and we went to a flop of AT5r. The rest of the hand played itself . . . that is, I ended up capping the turn when a blank fell and lost to his pocket aces (tricky on his part. I don't *think* he capped preflop.)

Still not convinced this was a good raise in this situation, but it looks like it was so close that I really shouldn't beat myself up here.

[EvanJC]

everybody gets outplayed sometimes =) of course its rediculous for me to give you advice, but why not drop down and kill the 20 for awhile? It sounds like you've never really experienced an extended period of losing - which on one hand is ideal, but on the other has maybe stunted your growth as a poker player - 100bb swings shouldn't phase you. good luck and i hope things turn around with the quickness.

[DMBFan23]

I remember when his Loc was crying bloody tears at 10/20, so I bet he's been through his fair share of ass kickings

[EvanJC]

heh no doubt - im pretty sure he doesn't have his 200BB chip though ^_^

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
heh no doubt - im pretty sure he doesn't have his 200BB chip though ^_^

[/ QUOTE ]

I earned a 200BB chip a couple years ago when I was a tilting fish. Since then, no 200BB chip -- closest I've come is about 160BB.

After running insanely well for 2-3 months (yes, only 35k hands or so) it's painful it being this tough to move up to the tougher games. Having a tough time figuring out the degree to which it's sucky play on my part, and the degree to which it's just bad luck over the not-quite short but definitely not long run (15k hands or so).

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
On that note, what's the minimum you need to pop it to three bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to arbitrarily assume he opens 25.2% of his hands in this position:

{ 44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

I'd 3-bet him with any hand that is 45% or better against his range:

44, A2s, A8o, KTs, KJo, QJs.