Close one - counting outs excercise :)

punter11235 · #1 12-20-2005, 11:09 AM

I made a mistake with counting outs when making my decision so its probably not that close as I thought. I forgot that I had 10s so it make one out more. So basically its easy I think. Sorry for bothering you. During play I thought its really really close (also pot is not laying me full 2-1 if I go allin .. and if I dont its strange feeling to fold 120 more in like 4k pot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

fuzzbox · #2 12-20-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I made a mistake with counting outs when making my decision so its probably not that close as I thought. I forgot that I had 10s so it make one out more. So basically its easy I think. Sorry for bothering you. During play I thought its really really close (also pot is not laying me full 2-1 if I go allin .. and if I dont its strange feeling to fold 120 more in like 4k pot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

[/ QUOTE ]

The 10 is most likely NOT an out.
3*A + 3*K + 3*Q + 4*9 + 9*[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] -9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (double counted) = 18.

4 cards showing, you have 4 in hand. Remaining = 44. In order to get appropriate odds you need 1/3 of them. 44/3 = 14.3.

Villain most likely has JJ (maybe TT), so you can probably do the math with 42 cards left, giving you 14.

Alas - you might split sometimes if he has JJKQ or he might be holding a couple of your outs.

Even still, you call here, because he might not be doing so, and you have more outs than you need to call.

You are 26:18 to make your hand which is about 1.5:1 and you are getting 2:1.

If you give villain JJ, then you are 24:18.

punter11235 · #3 12-20-2005, 12:40 PM

During the hand I forgot that I had 10s so counted only 17 outs (I assumed he had set and maybe one of my outs as JJxx may not play preflop so high card is probable).
I am slightly below 2-1 pot odds (I think its 1-1.8) and about 17-44 to hit which is 1-1.6 still its a call even with 17 outs.
During the hand I thought it closer. Now I see its easy call.
Btw I called and sucked out.

Filip · #4 12-20-2005, 02:41 PM

Have not read the responses but i am going for all in and it didnt take 20s it took .1s and i think that is a problem for me.

Filip · #5 12-20-2005, 02:55 PM

I have some thoughts on the flop play that involves this kind of hand.
How about not betting and take free card. Why this "weak" aproach you probably think, well here is my reasoning:

1) You bet and he folds - you win a small pot, positive metagame value

2) You bet and he calls - i have no clue, probably top set and wrapper.

3) You bet and he raises - will you not now find yourself commited in the pot and will have to continue to call if the turn doesnt pair? And you most likely are dog, problem is how big of one.

4) You check and have position on the turn meaning u can raise, check or fold depending on the card and hence get a higher EV and lower variance?

Thoughts?

Zameus · #6 12-20-2005, 03:53 PM

Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

LearnedfromTV · #7 12-20-2005, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

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19 is right to make a flush or straight, but the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is probably not an out, so you win 18/42 of the time (lets say the times you have another out or two, like the T, or the times he's straight bluffing or better a worse draw, balance with the times he has you blocked.) Since a lot of the hands that have a set have blockers/share some of your outs, it is probably better to be safe and say you have a little less than 18/42, so say 42% equity (instead of 43).

You have to push because the pot will be too big to fold for 100 more even with a pair of tens.

So you are putting in 1494 to win 1494*2+1332 = 4320.

.42*4320 = $1814, so pushing is the play.

If you like to think in terms of odds the pot is laying you 2-1 (roughly, exactly it's 2826:1494) and your odds against making the winner are ~ 1.35 to 1, or slightly worse than 24:18)

Edited to fix the math a bit.

Zameus · #8 12-20-2005, 04:56 PM

Thanks man, I did forget to factor in the 6 of spades. Also, I meant to say roughly 2:1 on your money but I think that was obvious. I don't know how the hell I figured 2.25 to 1 though. That came straight from my arse. My apologies.

LearnedfromTV · #9 12-20-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
During the hand I forgot that I had 10s so counted only 17 outs (I assumed he had set and maybe one of my outs as JJxx may not play preflop so high card is probable).
I am slightly below 2-1 pot odds (I think its 1-1.8) and about 17-44 to hit which is 1-1.6 still its a call even with 17 outs.
During the hand I thought it closer. Now I see its easy call.
Btw I called and sucked out.

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If you negate board-pairing spades from your outs you can account for two more cards (the JJ or TT in his hand), so there are 42 unknown cards, not 44. 18 is the right number of outs too, as you noticed later, the 6 is the only bad spade.