Going after your read

[Roy6]

3/6 at Prima

Hero raises A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in CO, only BB calls.

He is 28/17 so far, only 40 hands. He seems to be TAG. I saw him bet/folding once.

2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises, I call

I suspect a bluff here, with 78 OESD. He may have a pair, but I don't think he defends with hands containing a 5 or 6 (maybe A5, A6).

Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He leads, I raise, he calls

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He checks, I...

So I think he has 78 here a lot. He has an OESD so he didn't muck on the turn (a gutshot would do, maybe a low pair also). So he paired up. Is it +EV to bet here representing the King and trying him to fold his pair?

[jba]

I don't think I'd fold a 7 there mate. he could have a middle pair too, 77-99, 76s. he probably defends 87s all the time but i wouldn't bank on 100% on the 87o combos.

he can put you on a flush draw, A5/A6 or AQ (hehe) enough to call there

I'd Check. You have Ace high. He might have a pair or even a middle pocket pair. Not worth the risk imo. Take a look for free and make notes for next time.

[POKhER]

I think you're only chance to win this is to bet it and pray he folds, wheter he folds a made hand is debateable and probably unlikly.

I'd check to save a bet, but i think betting is probably +EV however i dont think we can really calculate it as its based on way to many assumptions.

[SparkyDog]

Roy,

The profitability of this play depends on how often he has exactly 78, and how often he decides to fold his rivered pair. That's quite the parlay, even if you are extremely sure he has 78, and I don't see a reason to be exceptionally confident about that.

[sfwusc]

I am checking unless my read says he folds to the bluff bet.

SWUSC

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
He is 28/17 so far, only 40 hands. He seems to be TAG. I saw him bet/folding once.

2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises, I call

I suspect a bluff here, with 78 OESD. He may have a pair, but I don't think he defends with hands containing a 5 or 6 (maybe A5, A6).

[/ QUOTE ]

I read this far and stopped. Why 78? Of all the possible card combinations he could have, why did you fixate on that one?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He is 28/17 so far, only 40 hands. He seems to be TAG. I saw him bet/folding once.

2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises, I call

I suspect a bluff here, with 78 OESD. He may have a pair, but I don't think he defends with hands containing a 5 or 6 (maybe A5, A6).

[/ QUOTE ]

I read this far and stopped. Why 78? Of all the possible card combinations he could have, why did you fixate on that one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Additionally, why would he play 78 but not 67 here? That's either an exceptionally good read or an exceptionally arbitrary distinction.