I know I have the worst hand... so I raise.

tpir90036 · #1 11-21-2005, 05:19 PM

On-line 20/40 game. Table has been good and this is my last orbit as I am tired as f**k.. this one confused me a little:

I raise T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG. and get a cold-caller. CO 3-bets, this could mean as little as A9 as he seems to be coming unglued a little bit... but it's probably not 64s. Folded to the BB who now caps it. This guy has been super passive the entire time so I put his range at { AA } and call two. Everyone calls.

Flop ( 16.5 SBs ): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, I call, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn ( 10BBs ): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets and I raise.

Spewing? I have a number of reasons as to why I did it... although some of them did not fully occur to me until after the hand was over [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Thanks in advance,
tpir

HopeydaFish · #2 11-21-2005, 05:36 PM

I hate hands like this. You know that one of your opponents has a higher PP, but the flop hits and it doesn't include a face card so it turns into a difficult fold.

And then the guy you've put on AA is the first to act and bets out, nobody raises him, so you think "meh, it's only one more bet" and call.

Now the turn gives you an str8 draw, plus a flush draw, so you feel you *have* to stay in.

The problem with the turn raise is that you're facing 3 opponents, one or more of which probably have you beat and are feeling good about their hands. And you know that the BB isn't laying down his AA (and it's 50/50 that one of his AA is a club), so you're probably just building the pot for him. I call on the turn and hope that one of the two players acting after me don't raise. I want to see the river as cheaply as possible.

#3 11-21-2005, 05:49 PM

If, in fact, BB has AA 1/4 of the time he will have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; your flush "outs" are no good 1/4 of the time. Furthermore you may be drawing dead if the CO has the flush already. Your hand is further devalued b/c you can make your hand only to have it beaten; you can easily make your hand and be beaten. I think there are better places for your money.

Scratch that, you've got 2 people to act behind you. There are MUCH better places for you money. Granted you may get someone with a J or Q high flush draw out but I don't think that's worth 2 big bets here. You are buying some outs but they are not clean ones. Even though the pot is big it's not huge. You want to win it, but you don't want to pay too much to have a 20% better chance of winning it.

Feel free to critique my math; it's by no means precise but I think the theory is sound. . .

#4 11-21-2005, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And you know that the BB isn't laying down his AA (and it's 50/50 that one of his AA is a club), so you're probably just building the pot for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it 50/50? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

HopeydaFish · #5 11-21-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you know that the BB isn't laying down his AA (and it's 50/50 that one of his AA is a club), so you're probably just building the pot for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it 50/50? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going by the OP's supposition that the BB had AA, it's 50/50 that he has the A of clubs. There are 6 possible combinations of AA, 3 of which would contain a club.
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

nubs · #6 11-21-2005, 05:58 PM

This doesn't make sense to me. Are you trying to fold out a single painted club behind you? Against AA you have 16 outs 50% of the time and 5 outs 50% of the time. It seems to me you should want to see the river card as cheaply as possible

#7 11-21-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you know that the BB isn't laying down his AA (and it's 50/50 that one of his AA is a club), so you're probably just building the pot for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it 50/50? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going by the OP's supposition that the BB had AA, it's 50/50 that he has the A of clubs. There are 6 possible combinations of AA, 3 of which would contain a club.
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Raising is REALLY no good here

Brom · #8 11-21-2005, 06:04 PM

If you don't put in any more bets, then I like the turn raise. You could chase out a Queen, Jack, maybe even a King of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and clean up your flush outs. If you get heads-up with an AA who doesn't contain a club, then you have 14 outs. Even if he has a club, you'll have 6 outs and hopefully a free showdown for the same amount of bets as calling twice would've got you, but with more fold equity and better chance of winning. A real problem for me would be if the other two folded out, BB calls, and then donks the river again - I lack the willpower to fold this if the river is a brick.

If someone three-bets the turn behind you then I'd fold. If someone cold-calls on the turn and BB three-bets, or if someone else just calls and BB donks the river, I'd fold. If it get's folded to BB and he three-bets, I think you have to call for one more with 6 pretty good outs (maybe just 1 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]). You'd be getting 15:1 immediate to call this bet with probably two more implied when you hit.

tpir90036 · #9 11-21-2005, 07:22 PM

This post sums up what I was thinking. I figured that if there was a chance I could get a paint [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out behind me it was worth investing an extra bet. If someone 3-bets the turn and I am still drawing very live well good for them I guess because I was folding. I was pretty sure that the BB was not 3-betting the turn with one pair even if he had the A or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I planned on taking a free showdown (if available) unless I made a set/straight or made a flush HU and the BB checked to me.

Not saying that raising was right... I would need to do some math and it is entirely possible that no one behind me was folding *any* [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and that I spewed away two bets. I will try to do some EV equations later on and see what they work out to.

tpir90036 · #10 11-21-2005, 07:30 PM

It had nothing to do with it being a difficult fold. I knew I was losing on the flop but with two backdoor draws and the other two tens as outs I felt that seeting the turn was not unreasonable. I was not overly concerned with anyone raising behind me given the pre-flop action... but that might turn this whole thing into a flop fold since I am not closing the action.

The turn boils down to "can I buy myself 7-ish outs worth of equity" (which even with one card to come is ~14%)? I think the answer is probably "no" since it involves hitting a parlay of 1) BB not having the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 2) actually getting soemone behind me to fold a paint [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].