$215 party SNG ITM hand

[DarrenX]

Reads:

Golf4Food fairly timid- twice minraised when he had the big stack and folded when DoUtDes went ott, once called with QJ and lost to his AK.

DoUtDes has bullied the table, pushes any two 9 times out of 10 in position with a stack.

#Game No : 2208307629
***** Hand History for Game 2208307629 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13100712 Level:8 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 14, 22:50:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 14002 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 4: Golf4Food ( $1245 )
Seat 5: DoUtDes ( $5990 )
Seat 6: DarrenX ( $2765 )
Trny:13100712 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarrenX [ Ks Jh ]
Golf4Food is all-In [1245]
DoUtDes raises [1740].
DarrenX...

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

[pearljam]

easy fold... right?

[yoadrians]

[ QUOTE ]
Reads:

Golf4Food fairly timid- twice minraised when he had the big stack and folded when DoUtDes went ott, once called with QJ and lost to his AK.

DoUtDes has bullied the table, pushes any two 9 times out of 10 in position with a stack.

#Game No : 2208307629
***** Hand History for Game 2208307629 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13100712 Level:8 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 14, 22:50:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 14002 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 4: Golf4Food ( $1245 )
Seat 5: DoUtDes ( $5990 )
Seat 6: DarrenX ( $2765 )
Trny:13100712 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarrenX [ Ks Jh ]
Golf4Food is all-In [1245]
DoUtDes raises [1740].
DarrenX...

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is def. an easy fold.

[DarrenX]

My thoughts- Golf is desperate and pushing any two. Du is raising to isolate with a mediocre hand, perhaps a small pair, perhaps Ax, something I'm likely not dominated by. I have a better than average hand 3-handed. I push and win and I have a commanding lead heads up. If I push and big stack wins and I get second. 66% of the time I'm good for 2nd or 1st. I've done no math on this so forgive my rough estimates.

If I fold, odds are probably 60/40 big stack wins based on a rough range of hands. 60% of the time I'm heads up with a weak stack. 40% of the time I'm in last place.

Ok, time to point out my flawed thinking- thanks again in advance.

[lastchance]

Golf is desperate, but he's certainly not pushing any 2. If I had to put him on a range, I'd make it, 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J7, T9, etc. Something like that.

So, that means SB's range is wide, but not insanely so. 22+, A2+, K7+, QT?

So, I think it's close, but since you have 5x BB, call/overpush.

[Jim C]

Why do you want to get involved at this stage?

KJ is not a premium and one of these probably has an A or a baby pair.

Clear fold as hopefully a player will be knockded out this hand, u just have to step out of the way with your marginal hand.

Since your stacksize are allin/fold positions, i would fold and see what happens.

[curtains]

It's not nearly as easy a fold as the others are making it out to be. My pushing range in the SB would be EXTREMELY wide after the button pushes (for example I would push with Q9o, probably worse).

[ricochet420]

Get outta there way.

[DarrenX]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to get involved at this stage?

KJ is not a premium and one of these probably has an A or a baby pair.

Clear fold as hopefully a player will be knockded out this hand, u just have to step out of the way with your marginal hand.

Since your stacksize are allin/fold positions, i would fold and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I want to get involved:

6 scenarios total with about equal possibilities of occuring:

-twice I win (with big stack second or third) and take a 2:1 chip advantage into the finals

-Two scenarios big stack wins (with me second or third)- I take second

-once short stack wins, I get second, and big stack gets third, giving us all about equal stacks (and I come out ahead in chips)

-once short stack wins, big stack gets second, and I get third, knocking me out in 3rd.

67% chance of guaranteeing 2nd or better, an additional 17% that increases my stack.

If I sit out I'll say 50-60% I'm heads up with a 3:1 chip disadvantage, and 40-50% I'm in last with 3 left.

Who's with me? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[curtains]

I would lean towards moving allin in this exact spot, but I don't really know if It's correct.