FPS or well played?

[Deorum]

This is a hand I played last night in a very good, fairly
loose passive 20-40 game at Bay 101. To me, the hand stood
out as a little odd, and I would like some feedback on
whether you thought it was played well or if you think I was
trying to find some excuses for making some fancy plays.
Anyway, here it is:

9 handed, fairly loose game. UTG folds. I am next with
8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and limp. The action is folded to
a solid player in middle position, who is a little on the
loose side. He raises. His preflop raises have not been
out of line, but they do not necessarily mean big pairs,
either. He has been raising with big cards, as well as
wired pairs. The action is folded around to the blinds,
who both call. Four to the flop.

The flop comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the action is
checked to me. I bet. MP raises. This player is capable
of raising with big cards here to buy a free turn and drive
the other players out. The blinds fold, and I call, with
the intent of betting any turn that is not an ace. If I get
raised on a blank turn, I can be almost 100% sure he has an
overpair to my 8s. If I get called, I think there is a
very high chance that my hand is best, although there are
quite a few turn cards which may make him afraid to raise
an overpair, such as a 6, a 7, an 8, or a heart. Heads up
to the turn.

The turn brings the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Whoops. To be perfectly
honest, I was not anticipating improving on the turn. But
going along with my original plan, I bet. If he raises me
there, I plan to call and bet any river. I think that this
player is capable of folding an overpair to a 3-bet on the
turn, and I would like to get one more bet out of him if I
can. If he just calls, I plan to bet a heart, 6, or 7 on
the river, as these cards may scare him into checking behind
with a hand he otherwise would have bet. I will try to
checkraise any other card. He may bet AK here hoping I
will fold a busted flush draw that picked up a small pair,
and he will definately bet an overpair. He may also make
a total bluff with something like KQ, hoping I will fold
an ace high flush draw that missed or a small pair. He
thinks for a minute, smiling at himself. He appears to be
amused by the situation. Finally he weakly calls. I can
tell that he hopes that I have a heart draw.

The river brings the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Check check, he shows AK.

So was this hand played well, or was my reasoning totally
wrong in one or more spots?

[Fianchetto]

Preflop: I think it's a little early to be coming in with that 98s, but if the game is loose passive, okay. What you don't want to happen is to have to take it up against AK out of position for 2 bets when it is not a multiway pot.

Flop: looks fine.

Turn: I think I go for the checkraise here, he has position on you and got the pot heads up with his flop raise, so he will probably fire again. Betting is okay though.

River: You need to bet this. You have been leading all along, so he his probably going to be happy to showdown his AK for free. If you think he puts you on a heart draw, like you said, then he may even call a bet with just ace high seeing as hearts didn't get there. He may also check through hands like 66, 77, TT on the river that would have called a bet. Bet the river.

[CardSharpCook]

Preflop: I really like this hand in a loose/passive game.

Flop: Good. Bet into the raiser hoping for a reraise to knock out 4 cards to your right.

Turn plan: Consider calling down. You know he is gonna bet if you let him, let him do your betting. You limit your exposure, you reduce the risk of out-thinking yourself. However, I understand the desire to bet to get him to fold 6 outs.

Turn action: Dude, chk/rz. Don't steal his thunder, he's raised you on the flop, give him a chance to buy the pot here. After chk/rzing, I lead the river too.

River: Uh, what are you doing? Going for a chk/rz? You've already given him cause to be suspicious, what hands would he possibly bet here? However, because he is suspicious, he might call a bet, thinking you might have a draw. Bet it out, man, he's a solid player and given the strength you've shown, he'll likely not bet anything less than eights with a better kicker.

CSC

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
River: Uh, what are you doing? Going for a chk/rz? You've already given him cause to be suspicious, what hands would he possibly bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

He would bet 99-AA, KQ, AQ, and possibly AK and AJ.

[ QUOTE ]
he'll likely not bet anything less than eights with a better kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

He would bet a lot of hands I beat. In fact, the only hand
that he could possibly hold which beats me is QQ.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
River: You need to bet this. You have been leading all along, so he his probably going to be happy to showdown his AK for free.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he will be very happy to show down his AK for free.
But that does not mean that I should bet. If he will not
call a bet with AK, I lose nothing by checking.

[ QUOTE ]
He may also check through hands like 66, 77, TT on the river that would have called a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

He would not have raised before the flop with 66 or 77, and
he very likely would have bet the river with 99-AA.

[surfdoc]

Not in love with the preflop limp but lets get by it. Flop is fine. Turn is an easy checkraise. If he checks behind on the turn he has overcards and its not the end of the world since he is drawing dead unless he also has hearts. He will often call your river bet as well if you miss your CR thinking you are bluffing your missed draw. The way you played it the river check is pretty awful.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is an easy checkraise. If he checks behind on the turn he has overcards and its not the end of the world since he is drawing dead unless he also has hearts.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it is not the end of the world, but it would still be
nice to get a bet out of him if I can. He is also capable
of folding an overpair to a checkraise, and definately will
not call a checkraise with overcards, so I get at least the
same amount from overcards, and probably overpairs, by
betting as I would by checking.

[ QUOTE ]
He will often call your river bet as well if you miss your CR thinking you are bluffing your missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, but how does this get me more money than betting
the turn?

[Deorum]

There seem to be a couple of things on which people so far
have agreed, but I would like to clear some things up.

First, this player is not betting the turn with overcards,
so checkraising him if he holds something like AK is out.
Even if he would bet them, check calling makes more sense in
this situation as he certainly will not call a checkraise
with them. He would even have a hard time calling a
checkraise with an overpair. He might call a bet with
overcards, though.

Second, it has been suggested that I bet the river here as
AK might look me up, hoping for a busted flush draw. But
I very much doubt that this player would call me here with
AK. He might, I will not say that it would be impossible.
But a lot of people call the turn with AK, with the combined
hope that, on the river, either the bettor misses a draw and
checks, or that he catches an A or K and that it is good
enough to win. When neither of these two things happens,
he often folds to a river bet. And since this player will
most likely bet 100% of the hands with which he will call a
bet, and I only lose to one of them (QQ), I felt that a
checkraise was in order. I lose nothing by checking instead
of betting when he has a hand with which he would not have
called a bet anyway.

Finally, it has also been said that I should checkraise the
turn. But, as I have already mentioned, he either checks
behind, or folds to a checkraise a high percentage of the
times that I do this.

It is certainly possible that I grossly misplayed this hand.
You guys just have not yet convinced me of it. Please keep
trying, but also keep in mind the things I have mentioned
above while doing so.

Edit: I also wanted to mention that many people seem to be
basing an argument on betting the river so that AK does not
get a free showdown, but I would like to point out that AK
only accounts for a fraction of the hands he could hold
here.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
He would even have a hard time calling a
checkraise with an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you need to start bluff raising him more often.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
Then you need to start bluff raising him more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very loose passive game. I do not get an
opportunity to be heads up with him on the turn very often.
Since he is only a couple seats to my left, usually he
has position on me, so I would have to checkraise him.
Since there are a bunch of loose players in between us, they
would already have called one bet and even if he folds, they
will call another one. The opportunity to bluff raise him
does not come often, but I was keeping it in mind in case
the situation came up.