Kerry +123 at Pinny

[anatta]

So last week it was +150. For those that don't know, that is how much you will win if you bet $100. Last night it was 130. This morning 127. Now 123. +123 is about 45%. The line has dipped like this before, with Bush rebounding.

I strongly suspect that fan money is on Bush. I have no real basis for this, other than Bush supporters tend to be more fanatical than Kerry supporters, who are fanatical in their hate of Bush, but not for Kerry. I think more Laker fans bet on the Lakers than Laker haters bet against them (check out Piston v Laker lines, scewed toward LA).

I also suspect at least 10 or so point is due, correctly, to the idea that if its a tie, Bush will "find" a way if you know what I mean. House of Reps, Fla Gov, Supreme Court, all are intangibles in his favor.

Bush is spinning like a mother on this missing explosives, I think he will be somewhat successful in this regard. Kerry has played his hand, that TV commercial maybe overplay. Cost of war billions more, not good for Bush. He is on the defensive, but some teams are better on the defensive, see Ravens, or counter-punching.