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#1
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[Note: I'm not looking for advice on how to play this hand - I didn't actually play this hand. I'm just looking for technical help on calculating the EV.]
Blinds are .10/.25 I'm on the button. One guy limps, and it's folded to me. I raise with A4s to $1. SB folds. BB raises all in to $4, and I put him in the top 15% range of hands, in which case he would win 57% of the time. Limper folds. It's heads up and my opponent is all in. The pot is now $5.35, and it costs me $3 to call. What is my EV, and should I call? I'm hoping someone smart will actually show the steps to calculate this - thanks! -ptmusic |
#2
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#3
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I have it - that's actually how I got the 57% . But that's not EV. Pokerstove doesn't calculate EV.
-ptmusic |
#4
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So 43% of the time you will win $5.35 and 57% of the time you will lose $3. So it is:
(5.35*.43)-(3*.57)=+.59 Basically if the answer is positive, you should call. If its negative you shouldn't. |
#5
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Thanks! What I was unclear about was whether you included your $3 bet in the amount you would win 43% of the time.
i.e., 43%(8.35) vs 43%(5.35) But you are saying that you do NOT include the $3 in the amount you will rake in if you win (because essentially you had it to begin with), even though you DO include the $3 in the amount you lose. Correct? -ptmusic |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
...you do NOT include the $3 in the amount you will rake in if you win (because essentially you had it to begin with), even though you DO include the $3 in the amount you lose. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly, you are investing $3 to win $5.35. |
#7
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oops, my bad
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#8
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Thanks!
-ptmusic |
#9
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No worries - there are so many good tools, and so many concepts and calculations. I get confused too sometimes!
-ptmusic |
#10
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[ QUOTE ]
But you are saying that you do NOT include the $3 in the amount you will rake in if you win (because essentially you had it to begin with), even though you DO include the $3 in the amount you lose. Correct? [/ QUOTE ] You're outthinking yourself. You gross 43% of $8.35. Your net (a/k/a/ EV) is gross minus the $3 outlay, or 59 cents. |
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