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#41
12-04-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about.
[ QUOTE ]
2) He most likely doesn't have a flush [/ QUOTE ] Why not? If you take his flop lead to be a sign of weakness, then wouldn't a draw be one of his most likely holdings? [ QUOTE ] 3) I only need him to fold a better hand 50% of the time to make this +EV. [/ QUOTE ] The reason you have such nice odds here is because your raise was so small, which makes it much more likely to get called. If he bet the flop with a big hand (set), he's not folding. If he bet the flop with a flush draw, he's not folding. If he bet the flop with TPGK and his kicker is a spade, he's not folding. If he bet the flop with TPGK and his kicker isn't a spade, then he still may not be folding considering your image. If he was bluffing the flop but happens to have the ace of spades, he still may not fold. The only way you can get a fold here is if he bet into you twice with garbage. 
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#42
12-04-2005, 05:03 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about.
I can't believe your getting hammered over this, Isura. Looks OK to me, although bluffing is not a good idea at NL50. About the only bluff that works OK, IMO, is the flush card bluff as you show in the OP. I'd make my raise to $25 at least however.
He'll look you up with a set obviously, or a flush himself. Probably AsJx and KsJx also. Probably not much else though. nh.
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#43
12-04-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about.
He's get hammered over this because he gives only very limited information about his opponent, doesn't even attempt to put the guy on a hand, and then goes and plays a big pot with middle pair. Playing LAG means you have to be good at reading hands and reading situations. There is none of that happening here.
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#44
12-04-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about...
I don't think villain has shown enough weakness to get him to fold here. He bet the pot on the flop and 2/3 pot on the turn. In my experiences, that is a person who likes his hand and will not be pushed off it easily.
You are correct that making plays like this will make it very difficult for someone without a strong hand to win a pot off you. However, I think this could be a time in which your opponent actually does have a strong hand. I would be more likely to try this play if villain bet 3/4 on flop and 1/2 on turn.
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#45
12-04-2005, 05:25 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about.
Although I still think the turn bluff is an OK move at face value, these Isura comments leave me a bit baffled:
BTW, I was not counting on him thinking about my hand, only that he was ONLY thinking about his own hand Why does it matter so much what I'm beating. Do you expect him to routinely call my raise and my river bluff? He has to be thinking about your hand. He has to believe you have a flush for this bluff to work. And bluffing a river blank would make this a bad bluff and chip spewing. You gave it a shot, one barrel, if he calls you, give it up. I think this works more times than people in this thread are believing, but the second barrel shot would be suicidal at NL50.
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#46
12-04-2005, 09:22 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about.
People seem to remember the times this works and forget about the times it does not. I am guessing this does not work 2X for every 1X it does work. And the 2X it does not work you lose a huge amount of money as the hero has said he will bluff river, while the 1 time it does work the villian folds on turn most of the time. This is a losing long term play and I dont see why people think it is good.
None of the conditions that need to be met for this to be a winning play have been met. Player specific and image specific.
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#50
12-05-2005, 04:36 PM
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Re: I finally (sort of) understand was Fimbulwinter was talking about...
Having read other responses, here is something that I keep in mind in this situation.
If the villian in this hand checks on the turn, then I'm done. He will likely check with a made hand after we called on the turn to feign some weakness. This is a normal move from a semi-solid player. So therefore, if he checks after we smoothcall on the flop then we need to be able to let it go. But.... I see these blocking bets all the time. I absolutely love playing the scare card. He bets $8 into a $12.50 pot. He doesn't have the flush. If he has the ace, he calls our raise but we can still take the pot on the river when the 4th flush card doesn't hit. To everyone saying "You have put 30 dollars in with middle pair 9 kicker", you are missing the point. You are successfully representing a hand and carrying it out appropriately. Bad players will call that raise with all sorts of holdings, but against players you read as solid, this kind of play can be profitable. In this case, he smooth called on the flop, and he essentially has 16 'outs' on the turn. If a 7, 9 or a spade comes on the turn, he can take control of the hand. Again, I think we need to stress the types of players which we can pull this off against, but if used within reason this is +EV. Brad
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