QQ against PF 3-bettor on AAx flop: WA/WB?

[SlantNGo]

On the flop, I go into WA/WB mode instinctively even though I capped pre-flop. Villain was sLA-A so I put him on {AA-JJ, AK} for sure, and {AQ,TT,99} at about 50% probability of a 3-bet. He once PFR from UTG and Bet/Folded a K73 flop (I took this to mean the was capable of folding a PP with an overcard on board to aggression).

So on the flop, there are:

8 combos of AK
1 AA
6 KK
50% * 4 AQ = 2 AQ

vs.

6 JJ
50% * 6 TT = 3 TT
50% * 6 99 = 3 99

So ahead of 12 and behind 17. During the hand, the turn K actually scared me into checking the river, but looking back at the hand, the turn K actually HELPS me because it lowers the # of combinations that I'm behind and doesn't affect the hands I'm ahead of, right?. So take away 3 combos of KK and 2 of AK and now it's 50/50 whether I'm ahead or behind.

So should the river be a Bet/Call? Bet/Fold? He has never called on the turn or river in about 30 hands at that point (too small of a sample?).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[FlopMe]

I have to lead the flop, if called I lead the turn also. If I get raised on the turn, I'm folding. If my flop bet is raised, I get mad, call the raise and check-fold the turn.

[DCWildcat]

Why not lead the flop?

I like the above line of folding to a raise on the turn.

[El Tigre]

I think you have to fold the turn here

[MrWookie47]

What changed on the turn that we should fold?

[DCWildcat]

The king

[SlantNGo]

Um, doesn't the King improve my hand? Read my post again... any of his possible hands that had Kings in them were already ahead of me, so seeing a King just means that they're less likely.

[DCWildcat]

I think your original hand distribution is too narrow. You don't think villain 3-bets with KQ? Maybe even KJ? That's not SLAG, that's superrock.

Edit: Who dey

[MrWookie47]

Hero didn't give a percentage, but it is quite uncommon to see KQ in a 3betting range. I think we can safely disregard KJ.

[TomBrooks]

I might checkraise the flop. Hand plays differently after that. If three bet I fold. If called I check the turn, threatening a checkraise. If MP bets I fold.