Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop

[Lloyd]

This is part two on our second "Play a Hand with the Maters". If you haven't already read and contributed to part one you should do so first.

Setup
$100+9 Party Poker MTT
Blinds 50/100
Hero is Gigabet
No strong read on villain

Stacks
Hero: t2670
Villain: t2915

Pre-Flop
Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG folds. Hero raises to t275. All fold to BB who calls.

Flop
Pot: t600

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

What range of hands do you put the villain on? Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why that amount? What do you do if he raises you? Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[Roman]

AQ-AT
KQ-KT
QJ (QT maybe)
22-TT

Bet 300-450 and try to get it in here.

edit: mistyped bet size

[rockythecat99]

I think villains range here is AK-ATs, KQs, maybe suited connectors down to 65s and of course 22-TT maybe JJ. I am ahead of all of these hands except JJ and tie with AK.

I bet here 350-400 as a continuation bet. If he raises me I am pushing. As given his range I bet most of his hands. If he has QT or JJ then well thats poker.

If he just flat calls me and checks the turn I am pushing unless and ugly ten hits. The I probably check behind and hopefully showdown. I'm afraid of a ten as it is more likely given the range I put him on that he has a q than a T to complete his straight.

Villain called on the BB getting great odds for less than 1/10 of his stack, so I expect his range to be something like 22-TT, A8s-AQs, AJo, AQo, KJ+, 78s+ or so.

I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.

I think a bet of 300-450 is good. No hand that's behind us gets odds to see the turn from a bet like that. Since we're Gigabet here, and we've got a very aggro reputation, I think I'd go with exactly 450, to make an A consider calling.

I'm horrible about getting check-raised on a flop like this with 2-pair, so I won't discuss my response, but I'm very interested in others' opinions.

[Black Aces 518]

I may wait a decent amount of time and then check behind to induce a blufl on the turn. I only hate a Q or T coming off and I'm willing to risk that to double up here. If he has JJ, KK, or AA (or QT), then lucky him, he's getting paid.

[jedinite]

Assuming I've been making standard continuation bets, I'm going to continuation bet this flop with my big hand, and would be happy for the money to go in the middle here if i'm re-raised. T300 - T450 (half to 2/3rds pot) depending on my usual approach.

I think the standard continuation bet here shows more potential weakness than a check - we're an aggressive player, we've taken the lead preflop and there's almost no way this hand didn't hit one or both of us. If our opponent is on an underpair the flop has already killed any potential action unless we let him catch a set. If he's on QT he's outflopped us and I'm probably going to go broke here (unless we had a read on the player as exceptionally tight, which we don't).

I think the standard continuation bet opens the door enough for a our opponent to make a move against us. if we're re-raised I'm content for the money to go in the middle with top two at this point, if we're behind I suggest spiking an ace on the river.

I can't imagine the turn bringing anything that's going to help our action (but not put us way behind) based on our opponent's typical hand range, so I can't see giving a free card here to represent weakness. I think continuing our typical agressive play has a better chance of inducing a bluff if we are up against Ax - in fact the weaker continuation bet (bordering on a probe bet) seems like the best way to do so.

[Roman]

[qoute]

I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.



[/ QUOTE ]

you think checking because he has a chance of hitting a 2-6 outer is too expensive? I definitely disagree there, I bet anyway cause the flop looks like it could have hit him and hopefully he will interpret the bet as a cont bet/steal and just get it in on the flop when a Q or T on the turn can kill your action.

[rockythecat99]

One thing I meant to ask on my first post is what is read on villain. Given this board will he bluff at it with 99 if we check behind on the flop? If the answer is yes then I might be inclined to check behind.

This is an interesting one. You have top two pair on a rainbow flop. There seem to me to be few hands you are behing. AA, KK, JJ and QT. All of these hands are possible, some people would reraise AA or KK but the hand is already headsup at this point so he may be trying to trap you. JJ is an obvious caller preflop and QT probably is from the BB as well. Against all these hands you are a massive underdog, drawing dead or to 4 outs.
The far more likely scenario though is that you are way ahead and should be looking to extract as much money from him as possible. He may have a gutshot draw if he has a Q or a T but I personally don't think this draw is worth worrying about too much. Perhaps I am a little reckless here but I'm not too worried about letting someone draw to a gutshot here since if it hits it's pretty easy to see.

given all this I think the best thing to do is check in behind him and hope to induce a bluff on the turn. If he makes a pot sized bet on the turn I push provided turn isn't a J, T, or Q in which case I'd call.
If the turn blanks and he checks, I'd make about a $400 -$500 bet hoping for him to checkraise me.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.



[/ QUOTE ]

you think checking because he has a chance of hitting a 2-6 outer is too expensive? I definitely disagree there, I bet anyway cause the flop looks like it could have hit him and hopefully he will interpret the bet as a cont bet/steal and just get it in on the flop when a Q or T on the turn can kill your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.