2 Hands for analysis (Deep Stacks)

[People_Mover]

Absolute 9K Guaranteed from last night (10.00 rebuy)
310 Runners, top 36 pay. 1st is 2300.

15 left. Blinds 2500/5000 w/200 ante. (11800 dead). Avg Stack 112500.

Hand #1: Folds around to the button who pushes for 70K. Hero(100K) is in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Button hasn't done anything for 2 revolutions.

Hero folds right?

Hand #2. 2500/5000 blinds w/200 ante. 13 left. Folds around Hero(88K) who finds K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. SB stack is 40K and looking to survive. BB's stack is 110K has played pretty tight. With M about 8, is this a push? Or a raise then fold to a push?

Thanks for helping.

On a side note, I won a shirt in the bobblehead freeroll. 3rd of 1500. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Exitonly]

Hand 1 is close, but i think i fold as he can hurt me pretty bad, and it's a pretty big push. I think you're probably ahead of his range, but this is a call i think i'm starting to pass up on.(maybe too weak)

hand 2 don't push, raise to 13-15k and call short stack push, fold to big stack's push.

[DireWolf]

i call the first one so fast, Is that a bad thing??

The second raise 2.5 bbs or whatever, fold to bb push

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
Absolute 9K Guaranteed from last night (10.00 rebuy)
310 Runners, top 36 pay. 1st is 2300.

15 left. Blinds 2500/5000 w/200 ante. (11800 dead). Avg Stack 112500.

Hand #1: Folds around to the button who pushes for 70K. Hero(100K) is in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Button hasn't done anything for 2 revolutions.

Hero folds right?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you say Button hasn't done anything for 2 revolutions what was the situation when he was button in the past? Was it folded to him and he folded or were there limps and raises and he folded? Unless I have a real read that the guy is folding th vast majority of his buttons when folded to I call that raise with AJo. I'm not sure how 11800 is dead, but at a full table an orbit is costing 9500 in chips, so the 70K represents an M of around 7. With an M of 7 on the button I could easily see a push with about the top 25% of hands heads up (and with many players sometimes even more - I'd definitely expect to see more people who would push with >25% of the hands than would push with <25% of the hands). The top 25% of hands are 44+, A4+, K9+, QT+ (according to the sb-push article from the magazine a few months back). Against that range you are about around a 56.5 to 57% favorite. You are getting an overlay with the small blind and antes in the pot, so you should definitely call. (Against that range you are a favorite if you call with ATo, A9s, 66+, when you add in the overlay which is 9.5K from the 140K direct confrontation, you can probably go down to around a 47% favorite that lets you add 55, A8s, and A9o to your calling range).

[ QUOTE ]
Hand #2. 2500/5000 blinds w/200 ante. 13 left. Folds around Hero(88K) who finds K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. SB stack is 40K and looking to survive. BB's stack is 110K has played pretty tight. With M about 8, is this a push? Or a raise then fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I push (this is my gut reaction without reading the rest of the thread, lets actually figure out if it is right). You have a top 25% hand. SB is shorter stack then you and from your read less likely to call than normal (and when he calls and you lose it is for around half your stack). Your push represents a big chunk of the BB's stack so he can only call with a small percentage of hands. If both your SB and BB put you on the top 25% of hands I described in answer to 1 then assuming they call with A9+ and 55+ [maybe the SB should have a slightly looser calling standard as the dead money is a greater fraction of his stack, but you said he is in survival mode so maybe this is too loose a range for him], then each of them is going to call you with 10.2% of their hands. This means that at least 79.6% of the time under this assumptions you pick up the 9500 in chips, a not insignificant find. If we assume for a second that the 10.2% is for each hand and that never overlaps, that is whenever the SB has a calling hand the BB doesn't and vice-versa (which makes this a slight underestimate of your EV) I get the following EV (I'm assuming that the stack sizes above are post ante but pre blinds, it changes things only slightly if this is wrong):

cEV(you fold) = 88K.

for cEV(you push) I get the following cases (I'm ignoring split pots here as my win% here are pot equity win % that are will lead to very slightly the wrong results, but should only make the most minor of differences):
1. Everyone folds. You have 88K+9.5K=97.5K.
2. SB calls and loses. You have 88K+9.5K+(40K-2.5K)=135.5K.
3. SB calls and wins. You have 88K-40K=48K.
4. BB calls and loses. You have 88K+9.5K+(88K-5K)=180.5K.
5. BB calls and wins. You have 88K-88K=0K.

Situation 1 happens 79.6% of the time. Situation 2+3 happens 10.2% of the time and situatino 4+5 happens 10.2% of the time using the logic above. When 2 or 3 happens you are winning 36% of the time and losing the 64% of the time, and same with 4 or 5. So overall (using the assumptions above):

cEV(you push) = .786 * 97.5 + .102*.36*135.5 + .102*.64*48 + .102*.36*180.5 + .102*.64*0
cEV(you push) = 77.6 + 5.0 + 3.1 + 6.6 + 0
cEV(you push) = 92.3K

So you have a +4.3K cEV from pushing using these assumptions. And if anything this should be an underestimate because the two 10.2% cases aren't distinct so >79.6% of the time you get the fold and as well if the SB is really playing weak-tight survival mode he likely will not call with hands like 55, 66, A9o.

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, I won a shirt in the bobblehead freeroll. 3rd of 1500. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Congrats.

[SumZero]

I agree with you that exit_only and OP's fold is to weak on hand 1.

With an M of ~9 I don't like putting in 15-20% of my chips in a case where I am likely to fold a BB push and that screams to the BB to push if the SB folds. But I think the weakest part of my MTT game is the range M 9-16 as I feel I know how to play with deeper stacks (say M>17, aka real poker) and I know how to play with shorter stacks (M<9, aka push/fold) but those middle stacks that are nearly short stacks I find hard to play. Scarr's visualization shows that at many sites this range happens to the average stack around 100 to 140 hands into the tournament (and fortuantely I play at UB which came out on the 140 range), but by then there are a number of big and small stacks so often you are playing push/fold due to the small stacks.

[billyjex]

I have begun to fold Hand 1. If your read is he is not an aggressive stealer, added to the fact he is not that desperate, and I think he has a tighter range here than AJo is ahead of, given the odds. I'm not at home to pokerstove but I think pushers range here is probably 88+, AJ+.

However, we can probably take out AA/KK -- people just never seem to play it like that.

[People_Mover]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Absolute 9K Guaranteed from last night (10.00 rebuy)
310 Runners, top 36 pay. 1st is 2300.

15 left. Blinds 2500/5000 w/200 ante. (11800 dead). Avg Stack 112500.

Hand #1: Folds around to the button who pushes for 70K. Hero(100K) is in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Button hasn't done anything for 2 revolutions.

Hero folds right?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you say Button hasn't done anything for 2 revolutions what was the situation when he was button in the past? Was it folded to him and he folded or were there limps and raises and he folded? Unless I have a real read that the guy is folding th vast majority of his buttons when folded to I call that raise with AJo. I'm not sure how 11800 is dead, but at a full table an orbit is costing 9500 in chips, so the 70K represents an M of around 7. With an M of 7 on the button I could easily see a push with about the top 25% of hands heads up (and with many players sometimes even more - I'd definitely expect to see more people who would push with >25% of the hands than would push with <25% of the hands). The top 25% of hands are 44+, A4+, K9+, QT+ (according to the sb-push article from the magazine a few months back). Against that range you are about around a 56.5 to 57% favorite. You are getting an overlay with the small blind and antes in the pot, so you should definitely call. (Against that range you are a favorite if you call with ATo, A9s, 66+, when you add in the overlay which is 9.5K from the 140K direct confrontation, you can probably go down to around a 47% favorite that lets you add 55, A8s, and A9o to your calling range).

[ QUOTE ]
Hand #2. 2500/5000 blinds w/200 ante. 13 left. Folds around Hero(88K) who finds K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. SB stack is 40K and looking to survive. BB's stack is 110K has played pretty tight. With M about 8, is this a push? Or a raise then fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I push (this is my gut reaction without reading the rest of the thread, lets actually figure out if it is right). You have a top 25% hand. SB is shorter stack then you and from your read less likely to call than normal (and when he calls and you lose it is for around half your stack). Your push represents a big chunk of the BB's stack so he can only call with a small percentage of hands. If both your SB and BB put you on the top 25% of hands I described in answer to 1 then assuming they call with A9+ and 55+ [maybe the SB should have a slightly looser calling standard as the dead money is a greater fraction of his stack, but you said he is in survival mode so maybe this is too loose a range for him], then each of them is going to call you with 10.2% of their hands. This means that at least 79.6% of the time under this assumptions you pick up the 9500 in chips, a not insignificant find. If we assume for a second that the 10.2% is for each hand and that never overlaps, that is whenever the SB has a calling hand the BB doesn't and vice-versa (which makes this a slight underestimate of your EV) I get the following EV (I'm assuming that the stack sizes above are post ante but pre blinds, it changes things only slightly if this is wrong):

cEV(you fold) = 88K.

for cEV(you push) I get the following cases (I'm ignoring split pots here as my win% here are pot equity win % that are will lead to very slightly the wrong results, but should only make the most minor of differences):
1. Everyone folds. You have 88K+9.5K=97.5K.
2. SB calls and loses. You have 88K+9.5K+(40K-2.5K)=135.5K.
3. SB calls and wins. You have 88K-40K=48K.
4. BB calls and loses. You have 88K+9.5K+(88K-5K)=180.5K.
5. BB calls and wins. You have 88K-88K=0K.

Situation 1 happens 79.6% of the time. Situation 2+3 happens 10.2% of the time and situatino 4+5 happens 10.2% of the time using the logic above. When 2 or 3 happens you are winning 36% of the time and losing the 64% of the time, and same with 4 or 5. So overall (using the assumptions above):

cEV(you push) = .786 * 97.5 + .102*.36*135.5 + .102*.64*48 + .102*.36*180.5 + .102*.64*0
cEV(you push) = 77.6 + 5.0 + 3.1 + 6.6 + 0
cEV(you push) = 92.3K

So you have a +4.3K cEV from pushing using these assumptions. And if anything this should be an underestimate because the two 10.2% cases aren't distinct so >79.6% of the time you get the fold and as well if the SB is really playing weak-tight survival mode he likely will not call with hands like 55, 66, A9o.

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, I won a shirt in the bobblehead freeroll. 3rd of 1500. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Congrats.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the informative post. I'd still like to have some other opinions, but I post results.

I fold hand 1 and raise hand 2 to 2.5 BB planning to fold to big stack push and call shorty push.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold hand 1 and raise hand 2 to 2.5 BB planning to fold to big stack push and call shorty push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I think my assumptions are reasonable that show EV(push) on hand 2 is better than EV(fold) on hand 2. If you were the big blind and it was folded to the button who does a standard raise which hands do you need to push over the top? I think the standard raise screams I plan on calling the sb if they push but folding to the bb if they push. And while you have to worry a little about a trap I'm certainly pushing any hand I'd call a push with from the button (which question 1 demonstrates I'm more likely to do than most) and I'd also push a number of other hands assuming that it isn't always a trap and I have real FE.