Free showdown or value bet? Party 10/20

adspar · #1 09-30-2005, 08:29 PM

BB here is 14vpip/9pfr/1.5 AF but only about 40 hands.

Comments on all streets welcome, but the river is my biggest question mark.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ??

thesharpie · #2 09-30-2005, 08:38 PM

I'd just calldown from the turn, but if you're raising the turn you should be betting the river for value.

baronzeus · #3 09-30-2005, 08:41 PM

this is an easy easy bet/fold

adspar · #4 10-01-2005, 01:29 AM

That was my thought in retrospect as well. But then I realized with QQ I'd have just called the turn and river, so it seemed weird to try to put more bets in with TT than QQ. Is QQ the same play? (raise turn, call donk/bet-fold riv?)

Actually with QQ I think I'd have called the turn and raised the river. Thats probably the difference. Yes?

If villain was looser I wouldn't even be asking.

cold_cash · #5 10-01-2005, 02:15 AM

Since he called the turn raise I doubt he's folding on the river.

What percentage of the time do you think you win when you bet and he calls on the end?

W. Deranged · #6 10-01-2005, 02:59 AM

What I don't really get is why you would be raising the turn if you don't intend to bet the river for value.

The standard reasons why one might raise the turn and take a free showdown are:

1. It is possible my opponent is on a draw, and I can get one more bet from him on the turn that he might not put in on the river if he misses his draw.

2. I have a combination of a medium strength made hand and a drawing hand and would like to have the option of determining river action based on whether or not I improve.

3. I have a chance to get a better hand or a hand with enough outs to profitably continue to fold on the turn.

4. Tactical considerations in a multiway pot encourage me to raise the turn rather than the river (often for protection reasons).

I don't really think that any of these are at work here, so I don't think a strict "free showdown" line is good here. If you're raising the turn it would seem to be for value primarily, and therefore I can't think of why you wouldn't bet the river here. So I bet/fold the river.

I honestly think you might be better served by simply calling down in this sort of spot anyway. You might find that a player with a weak K will go in to call down mode after you raise anyway, and so raising the turn won't necessarily simplify the play of the hand. Further, you may well encourage a taggish type to fold a hand like 88 or A7, which doesn't have many outs against you, to fold when you'd actually prefer for them to continue and put in incorrect thin value bets on the river against you. Raising seems likely to put you in a position of facing a very high percentage of hands beating you while shutting out many that you could extract further value from.

adspar · #7 10-01-2005, 03:15 AM

Yes! I understand your points here, but some of what you are saying seems to want a river value bet and some wants a free showdown. Although that might be a reaction to my confusing line of raising the turn and not being sure of river action.

My reasons for the turn raise were:
1.) it seemed unlikely a K would checkraise the flop, so many worse hands might still call a raise and some better hands couldn't 3bet so I'd lose the same as if I just called down.
2.) i could easily fold to a 3bet
3.) i could take a free showdown against a better hand for the same price as calling down, but give a hand with out a hard time.

So hands like JJ, QQ (which may or may not have 3bet), A7 and AQ are all in range for BB and might have played this way up to his turn bet. Add those to various other 7s and lower pairs and the turn raise made sense. There are some weak Ks that might have played this way too.

I'm just spouting disjointed thoughts here at this point.

I ended up wimping out and checking. BB had 87, and I immediately realized I should have probably bet, given the turn raise.

W. Deranged · #8 10-01-2005, 03:22 AM

My basic logic is this:

1. If none of the reasons for raising the turn are "free showdown" reasons, a turn raise is strictly for value here.

2. The fact that villain calls on the turn and doesn't raise or fold does not, in my opinion, indicate that it is particularly more likely that villain has a better hand than TT. In fact, since we weren't reraised, I take that as a sign that we are in fact more likely to be ahead.

3. The river card was not likely to have changed the situation significantly, and hence, if we had a raise for value on the turn we still have a bet for value on the river.

Therefore, the river is a good value betting situation.

This is a good example of a situation where the logic that underlies a turn decision essentially dictates a river decision; it is simply inconsistent to raise the turn here if we don't intend to bet the river for value, because raising the turn and taking a free showdown is likely to be a lower EV line than simply calling down. So if raising the turn is higher EV than calling down from the turn, it is because we have a clear value opportunity, and betting the river follows as a necessary logical consequence.

Do you see what I mean?

hobbsmann · #9 10-01-2005, 03:31 AM

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D-Bag

W. Deranged · #10 10-01-2005, 03:32 AM

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Do you see what I mean?

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D-Bag

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