Top pair heat

ArturiusX · #1 03-11-2005, 03:02 AM

I'm not sure how I handled this, no reads as of yet though:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $0.5. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero folds.

AlmightyJay · #2 03-11-2005, 03:12 AM

Seems to be that if you were behind on the flop, chances are really good that you're now ahead. If they had a set, so be it, but I would bet on two-pair more frequently than a set.

How bad is my thinking?

therockofgibraltar · #3 03-11-2005, 03:17 AM

Only hand that I can think of that you are behind is set of nines. And I think it is very possible if you think how the UTG played.

I would fold

milesdyson · #4 03-11-2005, 03:18 AM

Ack dude... Did you realize:

1. You may have the best hand.
2. You have 4 outs to the nuts (barring no amazing AA out there).
3. Players raaaaaaarely fastplay sets.

I'd raise this turn. You have top two and there is no possible straight/flush out there. Even if you don't raise this turn, you have to call with implied odds. If you hit your boat, maybe someone else will, too. You should not have folded.

Let's see...
Turn: (11.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume this gets capped behind you. You are going to have to call 3 BB in a pot that is going to end up being 23.25 BB. I think you have to call with implied odds. You're going to more than make up for it on the river.

ArturiusX · #5 03-11-2005, 03:23 AM

Im behind 33, JJ, 99, and could easily be behind a flush draw at the river.

Plus, my boat outs suck, so I'm not even really counting them, the pots going to have to be huge before I use them.

milesdyson · #6 03-11-2005, 03:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Im behind 33, JJ, 99, and could easily be behind a flush draw at the river.

Plus, my boat outs suck, so I'm not even really counting them, the pots going to have to be huge before I use them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dude, your boat outs suck? Wtf?

No one has JJ, no one has AA. Guarantee it. You have 4 live outs and if you hit on the river you are going to walk away rich. Your BB/100 is going to skyrocket. Hot females are going to come out of the woodwork to congratulate you. Gnomes are going to shine your shoes.

BTW I never said you had to call the river.

istewart · #7 03-11-2005, 03:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Im behind 33, JJ, 99, and could easily be behind a flush draw at the river.

Plus, my boat outs suck, so I'm not even really counting them, the pots going to have to be huge before I use them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ is highly unlikely given the contrast in preflop/flop action. J9 is also a possibility, and a likely hand that UTG could still be pumping. CO might be on the nut heart draw and have picked up top pair on the turn and decided to get frisky. I'd be hard-pressed to fold without reads.

milesdyson · #8 03-11-2005, 03:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be hard-pressed to fold without reads.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't fold if I knew for sure one of them had a set.

You're putting in 3 more BB on the turn (assuming it gets capped behind you). You're getting 20.25:3 or 6.75:1 to call, worst case scenario. Odds that you hit an A or J are 42:4 or 10.5:1. You don't think you're making up at least 4 BB on the river if you hit?

mungpo · #9 03-11-2005, 04:36 AM

I think you folded the best hand [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. Only hand that is beating you is 99 or 33.