#1
|
|||
|
|||
Approximate Kelly BR for LHE?.
I'm going to take a shot at higher games and I want to risk the minimum, while still giving myself an optimal chance of success.
Using BruceZ's formulas, with an SD=16 BBs, EV=3.5 BBs (incl. rakeback/propping), and 13% ROR. I come up with ~BR=75 BBs The intention is to move up/down in limits according to BR till I reach 15-30 and then stay there for a long time. I know I will need to get lucky somewhere along the way. Is that 13% ROR close enough to the Kelly point for poker as it is for Blackjack?. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Approximate Kelly BR for LHE?.
It depends.
The kelly system allows you to assume any ROR you want. As I understand it, the 300BB guideline for LHE gives you a better than 90% chance. If you're looking to move up fast and want to assume a high ROR like 13%, then there's nothing wrong with that. Just realize that ruin is a real phenomenon and most gamblers like to avoid it like the plague. If you can already beat the 15-30, then there is nothing wrong with your plan, as long as you realize that you may have to forgo some marginal +EV situations in an effort to minimize variance. You won't have to get too lucky if you are a good player. If you can crush the limits you plan on playing, then you will likely not have a problem. But, if you really can't beat the games... Dov BTW, If you are good at NL, you may be able to build your roll faster, and with less variance. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Approximate Kelly BR for LHE?.
[ QUOTE ]
Using BruceZ's formulas, with an SD=16 BBs, EV=3.5 BBs (incl. rakeback/propping), and 13% ROR. I come up with ~BR=75 BBs ... Is that 13% ROR close enough to the Kelly point for poker as it is for Blackjack?. [/ QUOTE ] The calculation is essentially the same. Kelly would say BR = SD^2/edge. 16^2/3.5 = 73.1, so playing at the level where you would have a 13% ROR is just what the Kelly Criterion would recommend. Of course, your actual probability of having to move down is far greater than 13%. Also, I think you will find the assumption that you can get the same 3.5 BB/100 at higher limits that you do at lower limits to be inaccurate. There is a huge difference between having 2 good players and 3 mediocre players divide up the mistakes of 5 bad players and having 3 good players and 4 mediocre players divide up the mistakes of 3 bad players. [ QUOTE ] I know I will need to get lucky somewhere along the way. [/ QUOTE ] You are lucky every time you win a pot, and you will need to win some pots. However, if you are a winning player as you assume, you will not need to be lucky on average to move up in levels. |
|
|