Obsession with value bets (Warning: Long)

[Che]

Rizen-

I like the main idea of your post, but you really oversimplified river play in order to make your point. In other words, what you are saying makes sense if your opponent will *never* raise, but the reality is that many online opponents will check-raise the river with air (or even with medium strength hands) if they sense weakness.

Thus, any discussion of deep-stacked river play cannot be limited to a simple call/fold analysis. (You never give specific stack sizes, but I infer that stacks are rather deep based on the range of bet sizes you provide in your examples.)

Overall, though, you make a good point that getting called some of the time with a large bet is often better than getting called all of the time for a tiny bet.

Later,
Che