Preflop steal gone bad - now what?

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I openraise from the CO, button folds. Loose/passive SB (50/6/0.6) 3-bets, new unknown in the BB caps.

What kind of hands should I be folding here in spite getting 5-1 on the call and having position? Aside from premium hands, what hands should I call?

I haven't been caught stealing with garbage recently or anything to drastically change my image from tight and aggressive.

1/2 blind structure if you think it matters to either of the blinds here.

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Oh I guess since this isnt hand specific I'm not spoiling anything with my thoughts.

SB almost certainly has a premium hand (AA-TT, AK, maybe AQs). Since BB is unknown, I assume he most likley has 88+ or a big A, maybe other broadway cards.

-Obvious calling range for me includes all pairs, since I should have good implied odds to to spike my set.

-Obvious folds to me are unsuited hands worse than KQ, and probably including KQo. I also think ATo and worse, and probably AJo are folds since domination is such a likely problem. Is folding AJo and KQo too tight, generally appropriate, or personal preference?

-Less obvious calls to me are weak suited Aces, since some of the time my A will be good (if both blinds have pairs) and I have flush and 2-pair hopes.

-I'm also thinking suited connectors are calls here for implied odds reasons also, but draws could get expensive postflop so I'm not sure about this.

If this is too basic for this forum, let me know.

(In the hand that made me wonder about this I folded ATo, and watched SB's KK beat BB's KJs on a AJxxx board.)

[flub]

I would fold anything worse then AJs. Pockets I'd play. Suited connecters I'd possibly play considering how aggressively they play postflop, but I'd fold most.

-f

Here are my comments b4 I read your second post. I would call with any pair since I have my odds of flopping a set, and I would also call with AKo,AKs,AQs,AJs,KQs. I would fold everything else. If the small blind wasnt so passive I would certainly open up my range here. The combination of a passive player playing back at you and an unknown capping you is very lethal.

[DeeJ]

AQ+ for unpaired hands.

Pairs are more tricky here. I guess I call given SB's looseness and 5:1 (chance of set = 8:1), but even if I hit my set I'm gonna worry about set over set, the lower my pair, the bigger the risk. Maybe should fold 66 and lower or something like that.

Sounds like a job for super-stove

[ QUOTE ]
AQ+ for unpaired hands.

Pairs are more tricky here. I guess I call given SB's looseness and 5:1 (chance of set = 8:1), but even if I hit my set I'm gonna worry about set over set, the lower my pair, the bigger the risk. Maybe should fold 66 and lower or something like that.

Sounds like a job for super-stove

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Another reason to call with any pair is the position of the hero. With the hero last to act on every round, if he does flop a set he will be able to extract the absolute most out of it. I understand your worry about set over set, I still think calling with 22 here is profitable given the heros position. I have no hard data to back this up, so I could easily be wrong, but thats how I play it and why.

[The Truth]

Any suited ace, any suited king, any PP, any sutited connector. (by any, I mean any of the ones I am stealing with anyway) AQo or better.



-blake

[BurnsvilleCardClub]

Good fold, and better luck next time in the fact that both blinds go to war on your steal. KJs caps? wow I like that game your in.

[DeeJ]

Assuming Hero's descriptions and assumptions as accurate, to get 20% EV (noting this requirement is 4:1 rather than 5:1) one can play a large range of hands. I'm too tight (and I thought I had the high SD) [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Low pairs will give a larger variance and I don't know if the extra lost bets when you lose set/set are worth it. They don't make much difference in Stove.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,184,385 games 8.438 secs 258,874 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.5845 % 40.63% 01.95% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.3323 % 34.39% 01.94% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 21.0832 % 20.40% 00.69% { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

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Hand 3: 21.0832 % 20.40% 00.69% { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Very interesting. I'm way too tight based on that as well, but I might not be good enough post-flop to pull off some of those hands. I guess position and the SB being pretty passive helps a lot.

(I didn't realize pokerstove was free, I'm downloading now.)