poker sites "juicing" the game

[FlFishOn]

" Statistically the underdog on these types of hands should win about 27%. To date i've observed and recorded 271 such hands and the underdog has won 100 or 37%, 10% higher than they statistically should."

Two points. 27% vs 37% is not 10% different, it's 37% different (higher). This is big. If maintained you need very little data to prove your hypothesis.

Secondly, by grouping all these dominated hands together you build in some error, maybe as much as 5-10%. To do it right you need to calculate each exact match-up, a ton of work.

Where did/do you play to gather this data?

[William]

Two points. 27% vs 37% is not 10% different, it's 37% different (higher).

you build in some error, maybe as much as 5-10%.

Is The later a real 5-10% or a 18½-37%? Please clarify...

[FlFishOn]

His estimate for % winning underdogs is .27 +/- .027, maybe. I'd need to see a bunch of work.

[tonypaladino]

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What was that?

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Moderator(s) notified In a moment you will be automatically returned to the forum.

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This is completely innappropriate.

[turaho]

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"As long as you realize that your projected sample size is still painfully inadequate to make any sort of conclusions on the reliability of a random number generator, then knock yourself out."

This is simply wrong. Let's take a look at your coin analogy. We will wager on a coin flip. I'll be flipping the coin. No, you may not inspect it. You may bet heads only on any flip or pass. After 20 flips, 10H/10T you jump in and bet and lose. another 20 go by, 11H/9T and again you bet and lose. Repeat this 20 times, you're -20 bets. Still want to bet? No, you'd be a fool. In fact you likely quit betting after you lost 8 in a row. You drew your conclusion after 8 flips!

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Well, let's examine this hypothetical situation you've set up and see how it contrasts with the post I was responding to.

In your situation, you are (I assume) the one who provided the coin and is doing all of the flipping. You have only one opponent: me. If that is the case, I might have reason to believe that you are cheating me, but losing eight coinflips in a row is far from proof.

But here is where the situation is different: the OP never claimed that the site was rigged against HIM, he said that the site seemed to be paying off non-favorites at a higher rate than would be expected given a pure environment.

So let's take your analogy and tweak it to match the original claim, shall we?

I have a six-sided die and ten people. For each round of our game we will pick two people at random and roll the die. If a 1 or 2 comes up, player A will win. If a 3, 4, 5, or 6 comes up, player B wins.

The person rolling the dice has no monetary interest in which player wins in any given situation--they make the same amount of money no matter who wins. Given that information alone, I can see no reason why the dice roller would have an interest in rigging the results, but let's continue with our analogy anyway.

Now let's say we play 270 rounds of this game. Pure odds tell us that a 1 or 2 will come up in 90 rounds and the remaining numbers will come up in the remaining 180 rounds.

Are you seriously trying to tell me, that if a 1 or 2 ends up coming 110 times and the other numbers fall 250 times, that the game is now rigged?

If you do, I invite you to go buy a six-sided die, gather 10 friends with an hour to spare, and try this experiment on your own. Be sure to report back with your OMG DICE ARE RIGGED!!11! post.

[FlFishOn]

My point was missed by you completely. I'll make it simple.

Statistical conclusions can be drawn from small data sets when the are sufficiently different from expectation.

It's clear you lack the statistical knowledge base to justify further elaboration on my part.

[ucfryan]

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For [censored]'s sake. can we get a separate "online poker is rigged" forum?

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[William]

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For [censored]'s sake. can we get a separate "online poker is rigged" forum?

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Can I be king of the new forum? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Drizztdj]

Are we playing Let It Ride?

No?

Then the answer is no.

Although I have never concluded it is rigged, I believe that one should question everything.

As a lawyer, I have seen the inner workings of corporations in the US and the greed and unethical behavior can be bewidlering. But the online poker sites are offshore and unregulated by tough gaming agencies such as those in Nevada and New Jersey.

I've played almost 15k hands and have a win rate of approx 1.2 BB/100. But I can say that it is amazing how many flushes and straights are completed on the river, not the turn. I think Party should make flushes a lower ranked hand just because they happen so often on its site.