A tough spot w a big pretty flop

[fsuplayer]

party PL 1000

i have 1500, villian has 950.

i raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], to $35 from UTG+1 after a fold.

all fold to BB who calls.

flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, I bet $75, villian raises the pot to $300 straight.

no read on villian. whats your play?

thanks,

fsuplayer

[fsuplayer]

provide some thoughts as well as voting if you could. I want to hear some lines and ranges of hands for villian.

[LuvDemNutz]

Well let's see - I think calling, getting a discount out of the BB he could have a wide range of hands.

QJ, TT, 99 of course

KT, KQ, KJ, AK, T9

Maybe even a lower heart draw.

I like pushing but I highly doubt you will get called unless way behind.

[Usagi_yo]

My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AKx, KQx, XX [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AKx, KQx, XX [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is never a bluff?

[soah]

Many of the players are so LAG that it's entirely possible that you already have the best hand here, and you have a draw to the nuts if you're behind. Your ace and king outs will also be live sometimes against hands like T9s which puts you at about even money to win. I think you have too much of a hand to fold here, but just calling sucks since you're out of position [edit: this is incorrect, but I'm too lazy to fix it]. Your opponent may be semi-bluffing with 87s and take a free card on the turn, if you spike a king you may not win anymore against T9s, etc. So I voted to push. Pushing also puts a lot of pressure on your opponent if they happen to also have AK -- they either fold their half of a split pot, or you get your money in while freerolling. Also pushing has some meta-game value if it causes some of your opponents to misjudge you/perceive you as being too aggressive with one pair hands.

I do think the decision is close though, and I'm interested in what other people have to say.

[Usagi_yo]

Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent. At this point, your basicaly fighting over $340 in strange money and you'll have to put in another $840 to realize that.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa whoa whoa he said this was a partypoker hand...!

[Usagi_yo]

If that's the case, then you opponant has 6s6h and the turn and river are sure to be 8h 7h

[DOTTT]

I think this is an easy push. Too many cards can kill your action on the turn. If you call and fail to improve you're going to really be in a tough spot facing a big bet with top pair (which might be good BTW). If this is 6 handed then I think villain can have a lot of hands. KQ,KT,T9,TT,99,89,JQ. Your only a big dog to a set, but I think this is a spot where you just have to be willing to take it down right now, or what the hell gamble.