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  #21  
Old 12-09-2005, 06:42 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[ QUOTE ]
Do you agree that with 22xBB, that we are MUCH more likely to see a tighter range than a looser one, and that A9 isnt a reasonable assumption. (possible, but very unlikely, especially with a TAG Hero)

[/ QUOTE ]
There's no way I'd call with A9. AT would be close. AJ probably but not definitely. What others do, of course, is simply astounding at times.
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  #22  
Old 12-09-2005, 07:53 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

I think Adanthar's comment about folding ATs if the 2K bet was not CO's standard raise is poignant.

If 2K is CO's standard raise then I think ATs in Billyjex situation is an easy push.
Hero is well ahead of CO's range.
Any raise will pot commit hero.
Hero has good equity against the range of hands that call.
(36% against AT++,77++)
Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.



Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).

Opening range: All broadway, pairs down to 5s, aces down to a5. ~300 hands
Calling range: AT++, 77++. ~112 hands.

Take into account hero has AT and CO's # hands change for the same range.

Opening range: ~250
Calling range: ~90

Villain calls with ~36% of his hands.
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  #23  
Old 12-09-2005, 10:22 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think this is really meant to be a resteal (kind of what I found so interesting in the analysis). I was suprised when I saw how little it mattered what hand SB held here. To start the hand, you think ATs...pretty good hand, he may be stealing, Im probably ahead...a push is good!

Yes, I think a push is +CEV. Probably in the range of 1.5-2.5xBB.

But here is the thing, wether or not this is play is expected to win you chips or not, really doesnt have much to do with the fact that we have ATs.

Our bet (22xBB) is a big preflop bet at this stage. It is pretty much as large as can be considered reasonable into a single 3.5xBB opening raise. So, since our bet is so large, we really limit the number of hands that are willing to call us. I think that we limit it to the point that ATs has negligble value. Without a hand like KQ or A9 in the calling range, we lose little value by changing our cards for 76s.

I disgaree with the push for different reasons, not the CEV of the play. I just found it interesting that our read on the villan was so important here.

If we had 10-12xBB, I think the quality of our hand is very important (we are going to be pricing in calls from KQ, A9, etc). But when we are this deep, we should be looking to make this move with 72 against the right opponent. All hands below AJ are close enough in equity that they arent going to swing this very far in either direction in terms of expectation.

[ QUOTE ]

Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

[/ QUOTE ]

We have alot of FE, true. But the hands that beat us (other than low PP) are coming along anyway, which again, drives home the point that ATs is pretty irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree here. If we treated all situations like this as CEV = $EV, I would think that it would flow into winning SNG theory, which from what I can gather it doesnt.

With a flatter payout structure, I dont see why treating this like a party SNG from here on out wouldnt maximize my $ won. There are some winning players that will really lag it up early in a SNG, but in a situation like this, where we should assume players arent experts at playing 10xBB stacks, I dont see why we would. (that is assuming hero has a good grasp of the theories talked about on our STT forum)

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.

[/ QUOTE ] The only way this could be true is if he only opened with hands that would call a 22xBB reraise, which cant be true.


[ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.


[/ QUOTE ]
True, I was just trying to mock up a range, I dont really think there is any truth to it. I think this range would need to be generated from the type of player we thought he was, and how often this type of player will open from the CO with these stacks.


[ QUOTE ]

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).


[/ QUOTE ]

There is no real point in putting him on exact cards to open here. Many players are (and should be) playing the position and players in the blinds here. If he thinks that they are tight, and has a decent image, it very well may be any two. He cant be thinking that he is playing any hands for value other than the very best, b/c pots at this level dont go to the flop very often.
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  #24  
Old 12-09-2005, 11:06 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

If villain calls 36% of the time 76s and other hands are much worse against villain's range. (77++,AT+)

you aren't folding out that many hands. When villain raises for value. (64% thereabouts)

We agree that most of hero's value comes from FE, but villain is simply not folding aj or at enough to make pushing junk any good here. IMO.
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  #25  
Old 12-09-2005, 11:27 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

It is just our ranges that will call that differ.

I dont think AT and 77 will call, you do (which is reasonable). AT is much better vs those hands.

Hopefully we have enough of a read on someone by this point that we know if they are the type willing to call off 1/2 their stack with AT, or mid pairs.
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  #26  
Old 12-09-2005, 11:33 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

Locutus, I reran the numbers with your calling range, we have 36% equity w/ ATs, 32% with 76s. Still not a huge deal, the big deal is you have us going to showdown 10% more often than I do.
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