Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]

Another post commented: well, what happens when you win, do you do it again? It brings up an interesting point, because of course the expected value of taking this proposition to infinity is that you'll eventually go broke (and most likely in the first 10 such 'double up' scenarios).

So the scenario is a little flawed. But as a one-time shot, i'd put my entire online bankroll on AA all-in preflop in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]
This a good illustration that everyone who said Yes uses an artificial definition of "bankroll". When you win, the wins are added to your bankroll, right? So if you call the amount of money that you put initially on the line "bankroll", it is now doubled, and since you agreed to put your "bankroll" on the line, you'll put it again and again until you lose it.

The reason you are willing to put what you call "bankroll" on AA is because it is a small fraction of your bankroll. When you double it up a couple of times, this amount becomes a much larger fraction of your bankroll, and so you are no longer willing to put it on AA.

Personally, I use Kelly/20 betting, and I'd put at most 8% of my bankroll on the line -- independent of the size of my bankroll.

[teddyFBI]

I don't deny that perhaps I'm using a different definition of "bankroll".

If you framed the question -- as many here are attempting to do -- would you wager on AA (or any 80 - 85% game of chance) with the understanding that not only would you lose your entire poker bankroll, but you would be bound never to play poker again (or even not play for the next 5 years), I would not take it. MicroBob is correct that I'm simply not willing to take a 20% chance of being unable to make my steady poker income.

But of course that scenario is flawed (depending on your def. of bankroll, i suppose). If you extrapolate the hypothetical to a very real real-life decision, though -- and for me that scenario looks like this:

- Would I put my entire accumulated poker winnings, perhaps $110,000, on AA (or any 80% favorite game of chance), with the understanding that if I lost it, I'd be free to dip into my savings, exercise part of my accumulated 401(K) (even with the early withdrawal penalty), or heck, even take out a personal bank loan at a shitty interest rate, so I could fund my poker playing, then yes - i would do it. If it meant that my poker career would be over, then no, i wouldn't.

I don't think that's cheating with a modified definition of bankroll. TO the contrary, I think the situation just described presents the most realistic scenario in which to consider this problem. It's those who choose to define bankroll as "future ability to ever play poker again" who I think are 'cheating' here.

[theblitz]

[ QUOTE ]
My entire poker bankroll on AA? Yes

All the money I own + assets? No

[/ QUOTE ]

How about the wife?
Maybe win and get back your own plus two of a lower denomination?

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Izverg04]

I just wanted to point out that when the answer to the OP's question depends on how big your bankroll is, the definition of bankroll used to come to that conclusion is not very meaningful. I like to use the size of my bankroll to guide my gambling decisions (as well as investments and insurance and any other risk-taking decisions), and my Neteller balance is an artificial measure for making these decisions.

[Alobar]

Put me down in the yes camp. Why the hell wouldnt i? You dont get better odds than that. Situations like this are what winning players build their whole game around. I don't have any life factors that would keep me from doing otherwise. If I lose and go broke, I'll just get some crap job for a couple weeks to get some scratch and start all over. I dont have a wife or kids or anthing, me going bust isnt going to have a negative impact on anyone elses life but my own. And the negative impact on my own, isnt that great, so for me, its an easy call.

[sfer]

How much of a favorite do you have to be to risk your bankroll? 10 to 1, more?

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]

How about this for a real risk of ruin, not a hypothetical one where you might be able to get staked, etc: You have AsAc on a board of AhAd10d Your opponent holds Jd2h, and his cards have been exposed. He moves all in for 250 million dollars, but you don't have it. You can call him, but the guaranty that you must put up is your life. If you win the hand, you win 250 million dollars. If you lose, you die. Do you call the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Anyone who doesn't call this bet should stop playing the game of life right now [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

And I am only half kidding -- I'd sacrifice 2 weeks of life expectancy for much less than $250 million. Research shows that average Americans routinely take ~$1000 in exchange for a week of life, so $250 mil is way above the fair price.

[sublime]

i should repharase my answer. i would risk 300BB's of my roll.

shoot, maybe 600. yeah 600BB's of the highest limit I play (30/60).

[xniNja]

What do you mean 2 weeks of life expectancy? Are you going to die in 2 weeks anyway? I would take the bet simply because I value my life with $250 million dollars as an astronomical favorite to my life without 250 million dollars, or death.

If you lose with 4 aces to a runner runner royal flush to J2 off, you're better off dead because life was not treating you right.

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't it be any suited connector that doesn't make a straight with an ace? 98s, 87s, 76s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are correct. So when asked what is the best hand, it's 98s (sure 87s has the same odds, but the 9 is higher).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect, it is 65s.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=106930
pokenum -h as ah - 6c 5c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1314307 76.76 391582 22.87 6415 0.37 0.769
6c 5c 391582 22.87 1314307 76.76 6415 0.37 0.231
</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=28104
pokenum -h as ah - 7c 6c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1315168 76.81 391637 22.87 5499 0.32 0.770
7c 6c 391637 22.87 1315168 76.81 5499 0.32 0.230
</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2295
pokenum -h as ah - 7c 8c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1315602 76.83 391672 22.87 5030 0.29 0.770
8c 7c 391672 22.87 1315602 76.83 5030 0.29 0.230
</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=71352
pokenum -h as ah - 9c 8c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1322321 77.22 384768 22.47 5215 0.30 0.774
9c 8c 384768 22.47 1322321 77.22 5215 0.30 0.226
</pre><hr />

Now, for bonus points, what is the worst hand you can hold against pocket aces?