Curtains Hand #1 (1C5)- Bubble play

[bigt439]

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more importantly is, why didn't SB come over the top?

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The strategy of just coming over the top of anyone who has less chips than you on the bubble, is very overrated. I wouldn't raise without a good hand as the SB...the risk is too high in a world where people may call with something like 55.

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Well, couldn't you argue that your hand has far too much value to do a stop n go here? Specifically, don't you want him to call with a hand like 55 or KQ? You need to double up here.

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God no. You'll take having 1700ish every time than having to go 60/40 or 50/50 for 2500ish.

[bennies]

The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[curtains]

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The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

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I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[bennies]

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The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

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I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

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Thanks for taking the time to elaborate (it must be pretty late where you live [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

I still think you are wrong - mostly because the pot is not 1700 chips but only 900! 600 more in it would mean a lot for hero.

Of course you are right about not taking chances on the bubble, but as I said in an earlier response this comes into play more if there are other short stacks. Here, Hero is way outchipped by everyone and he can't afford not to try and win these extra 600 chips (even if there is a 23% chance of villain sucking out).

Well, it's not totally clearcut, you made good points about pot splitting etc, but I think preflop pushing is the best.

Stop & go. You've got squat for FE, and three cards is better than five. A question, what hands do you push here because you want a call? Obviously AA-QQ. I think I'd push AK and AQ, but what about AJ and 88-JJ. In other words, how much of an advantage do you want to risk it all? 70/30, 75/25, 80/20?

Will

[bennies]

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The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

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I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

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Thanks for taking the time to elaborate (it must be pretty late where you live [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

I still think you are wrong - mostly because the pot is not 1700 chips but only 900! 600 more in it would mean a lot for hero.

Of course you are right about not taking chances on the bubble, but as I said in an earlier response this comes into play more if there are other short stacks. Here, Hero is way outchipped by everyone and he can't afford not to try and win these extra 600 chips (even if there is a 23% chance of villain sucking out).

Well, it's not totally clearcut, you made good points about pot splitting etc, but I think preflop pushing is the best.

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eeeeh, math time out... . I'm glad I saw this before tigerite or someone lost all respect for me. Anyway, curtains is more correct than me, Hero risks 1520 (not 900 like I said) to win 620. As curtains said pushing preflop is probably +CEV but not +$EV because it's bubble time.

However, other things might make up for it. For one, Hero probably has a tiny amount of FE preflop (at least he would at the 55's). For another, when we flop an A we loose money the times we don't double up.

I think I prefer s n going now though.. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Custer]

To add to Curtains' point, the 900 chips already in the pot once you call are worth much more per chip than the extra 600 chips you might win. IMO, it is almost never correct to play your hand in such a way where you will need to win a showdown to take the pot on the bubble.

moses

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I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble!

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Isn't there 900 in the pot PF? Leaving hero with 600 (620). So, on the flop hero puts in his remaining 600 and villain faces a 600 to win 1500 decision.

Just sort of to help myself through stop'n'go theory, working with the A9 vs Q8 assumption:

If hero pushes PF, villain has the option to call 600 to win 1500 which is 2.5:1. As a 60:40 underdog, that's an easy call.

If hero pushes on the flop, villain has the same call 600 to win 1500 (2.5:1) option. But, if the flop has missed villain, he's now about a 75:25 underdog and isn't getting the proper odds to call.

Of course, the "if villain misses the flop" part is a big if.

I suppose the thinking is that sometimes villain misses the flop and folds, and when he doesn't the net effect is the same as pushing PF.

Have I got it right so far?

Does that mean that to really answer the stop'n'go vs PF push question we have to determine the a priori value of the turn and river? This little text box is a bit small for me to try to work that out, especially given: I might be wrong; and if I'm right someone else might volunteer it.

[curtains]

900, 1700 ...whats the difference! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyway I dunno the way to phrase it, I just know we are risking a lot of chips to win an extra 600.

My general rule of thumb is to try to win pots uncontested late in events instead of gambling for a bit extra, even if I think it might be +CEV. It's possible that this might not be correct in this given hand. But damn, I dunno, maybe they are capable of folding 22 on a really ugly board. I mean the board was KTx what the hell could he possibly have that is such a huge underdog? Only ridiculous hands like Q8, 87. I don't know that our opponents are restricted to just folding hands like that..They fold way too often for me to believe they always have some totally hopeless hand like this.

[curtains]

btw the good news about this hand is the difference in EV each way is probably very small..so its not a huge deal if you play it one way compared to another.