AQo, whiff the flop.

[hobbsmann]

I'm having a hard time putting UTG+2 on a hand here, but am leaning toward him being a stubborn calling station with what is now second pair on the turn. So I'm going say that him calling the river shouldn't affect your river decesion directly. It has an indirect effect in that the pot is now protected and thus BB is (theorectically) going to need a hand that beats TPGK to bet the river. That being said BB is still unknown and I think we can argue that the river call is thin, but given the pot size, good in that you will see Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and AT/AJ enough to make it profitable.

The turn call is good as the combination of having a fair amount of outs against two pair, 3 outs against Aces up, and being ahead of the above mentioned aces make calling at around 10:1 profitable.

[Mister Z]

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I think there is enough coordination and number of opponents in this hand to make this flop a fold. Although most of the time you may have 6 clean outs, the % of the time you are reverse dominated or up against a ton of outs brings the value of this hand way down to me.

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We only need 4 outs clean. Only a bet and one caller, standard call IMO.

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If you were going with the SSHE method of counting outs, wouldn't you give this 1.5 outs for each overcard? I'm not saying I would always fold this flop, but it would depend on how much action I thought I would get if I made my hand on later streets. No?

[BigEndian]

What do you think my opponents think I have?

- Jim

[hobbsmann]

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What do you think my opponents think I have?

- Jim

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It is really hard to put them on a solid hand range with no reads, but like I said in my post bb's range contains a bunch of hands that beat you (sets, two pairs) and some aces you beat (though these should probably be weighted slightly less). UTG+2 is hard to put on a hand, but unless he had exactly a pair +bk spade draw on the flop and then is going for overcalls on the river his hand doesn't matter because you have him beat.

The thing is at 10/20 some of the TAGish types really aren't good hand readers so I wouldn't be suprised to see bb with some weaker ace who on the turn was like 'ohhh I have top pair me check/raise'. Basically there is enough uncertainty in my mind about his range that calling the river is the right play in my mind.

[MisterKing]

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I think you should be folding this turn. Looks like you either drawing dead against a straight or a set, or you got 3 outs against A and a paired x.
I'd fold.

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WEAK TIGHT. No way. There are a million hands an even semi-aggressive player might C/R on the turn that we can beat, and there is still some possibility that he is trying to blow the field out via an isolation move.

Here's the logic: checking through gets us no value and lets others draw for free when they are drawing, so when checked to us we cannot check. Open folding the turn is a retarded idea, so that leaves betting the turn.

Once we've bet it, and its raised and coldcalled back to us, I think we have a clear call + check/fold unimproved on the river. When its back to hero on the turn, he's getting 11:1 to call. He has two very clean outs (the Qh and Qc) to a better aces up, one dirty out (Qd), and if he's behind something like A2, then pairing the 7 or the 4 would give hero a win as well. Additionally, some of the time we have the best hand on the turn! Yes, BB will have a small set some of the time, and that's life, but without a read that this is exactly how he plays his sets, and absent a read that he's aggro enough to iso-C/R or C/R a pair + draw or pure draw, folding the turn is suboptimal.

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Once we've bet it, and its raised and coldcalled back to us, I think we have a clear call + check/fold unimproved on the river. . Additionally, some of the time we have the best hand on the turn!

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If this is true then some of the time we will also have the best hand on the river, so why check/fold?

[Nick Royale]

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An alternate line would be to check the ace through


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Wow, you're really being result oriented here.

[toss]

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An alternate line would be to check the ace through


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Wow, you're really being result oriented here.

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A line I'd neeeeever use. You hit an ace. Value bet.

[BigEndian]

Not at all, I haven't shown the results yet. When it was checked to me on the Ace I thought right then about checking it through.

- Jim

[Nick Royale]

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Not at all, I haven't shown the results yet. When it was checked to me on the Ace I thought right then about checking it through.

- Jim

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Ok, that's an awfull line imo...