Laying Down an Overpair - Party 20 - Page 2

DeeJ · #11 09-30-2005, 05:22 AM

I think it's a bit closer than people have made out, but still a fold. Assuming we're good if we hit our 2 outer, we have effective odds of 14:1 because button is almost sure to call. If button caps our odds are reduced to about 12:1 though, and to 13.5:1 if he folds. To make up for the odds shortfall you need to win about 8 BB on the turn and river. Given the action so far this isn't impossible, but you could be outdrawn often enough by Kings or Aces or a 5 who build a bigger hand. I'd say that, with the chance you're already nearly dead to quads, would make it a fold.

somapopper · #12 09-30-2005, 05:24 AM

Allow me to join the fold support group.

Feel free to swear at Mr. lagtastic when he turned out to have by far the worst of it and the queen falls on the turn.

By the way, what do y'all think utg+2 has?

somapopper · #13 09-30-2005, 05:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a bit closer than people have made out, but still a fold. Assuming we're good if we hit our 2 outer, we have effective odds of 14:1 because button is almost sure to call. If button caps our odds are reduced to about 12:1 though, and to 13.5:1 if he folds. To make up for the odds shortfall you need to win about 8 BB on the turn and river. Given the action so far this isn't impossible, but you could be outdrawn often enough by Kings or Aces or a 5 who build a bigger hand. I'd say that, with the chance you're already nearly dead to quads, would make it a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

quads, really? Anyone at this level is rasing utg with 5s?

DeeJ · #14 09-30-2005, 05:29 AM

Not just UTG. Button and MP also are staying around as far as we know and like their hands. There are 3 opponents here.

mplspoker · #15 09-30-2005, 07:39 AM

If you fold an overpair of QQ on the flop in 20/40 just b/c it got capped preflop and check/3bet on flop of jack high ... you will get killed on 20/40 on PP. The logic you guys are using is that the other players are all rationale... give me a break. Folding this is throwing away $$$ ... Cap flop and lead turn..

mdeck · #16 09-30-2005, 09:05 AM

FWIW I put UTG+2 on JJ after the flop action.

MP1 had been doing a lot of limping so I didn't necessarily give him credit for much, though calling 3 bets cold on the flop indicated a dumb sandbagged 5 or a flush draw, minimum. They may be donks, but I'd say the overwhelming majority players even at the 10/20 games I play will instafold for 3 bets on the flop without a big hand or draw.

I put button's capping range on AKs-AQs and AA-TT. I'm only ahead of AK-AQs, AKo and TT here, and splitting with the case QQ. If Button is playing AK(s/o) this way he's got at least one big spade, which negates any backdoor flush draw I have. Worst case scenario he has AA-KK, though I think after UTG+2's and MP1s action I'm drawing very thin regardless.

I didn't post numbers because I didn't want them to make a difference as I only played a few orbits, but overall on the night UTG+2 turned out to be something like 29/19/4.5 over 50 hands (which of course is irrelevant).

Although the pot is huge, at the time I felt that the chances of me having the best hand were much lower than 10% (and UTG+2 check/3bets after the cap with no less than AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which I'm barely ahead of in the first place), and the times I'm good on the flop, I probably only am best half the time at showdown against these opponents.

I'll post results for those curious after I get back from class.

DeeJ · #17 09-30-2005, 09:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
all rational

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp ... if more than 1 of the other guys I know are LAGs I'm calling, that's fine. Folding the best hand is a huge mistake, sure.

But I've also hung around on boards like this with a less-than-nut overpair and frequently come a poor third (eg to AA and JJ here), and needed to put in a further 4,5,6 BB to get a showdown. That's also a major leak situation. If you get a blank turn and it's raised to you, do you call 2 again? or reraise? In my experience in a normal (not hyper-aggressive) game people who raise and reraise into a large field of opponents can beat top pair.

In my post I assumed that Hero needed to improve to win. I guess if you assume that Hero is ahead 20% of the time you can profitably raise yourself, for value.

Your mileage may vary. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

mdeck · #18 09-30-2005, 10:42 AM

I'm not folding just because it was check-3bet to me. I'm folding because I'm putting my opponents on a range of hands considering both preflop and flop action and deciding that most of the time I'm calling with the way worst of it and when I'm good here I'm not good very long.

mdeck · #19 09-30-2005, 01:21 PM

Not putting results in white, because based on the rest of the hand's action you should be able to tell what each player had.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em 10 Handed converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds, Button calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Button calls.

River: (16.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Button raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Button caps, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 24.75 BB

Results:
UTG+2 has Jh Jd (full house, jacks full of fives).
Button has Ad Ac (full house, aces full of fives).
Outcome: Button wins 24.75 BB.

Nice Read DeeJ, I thought the same thing when it came back to me on the flop: JJ and AA/KK for the Button. Guess MP1 was chasing the flush as well. I wonder if the fact that I posted hands suggested to people that I in fact was ahead and made a fold when I had the best of it - to the contrary, I was more curious how close the fold was. I still think it was close, but individual reads and previous hands might have influenced me to fold.

DeeJ · #20 09-30-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice Read DeeJ

[/ QUOTE ]

heh glad i got one right for once [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]