Blind Defense 10/1 - Page 2

tshort · #11 09-20-2005, 12:47 AM

First, calling the flop gives him a free card. You will give him a 10-20% chance to turn the better hand for free? Regardless of what he has, I think it is likely he will make another bet on the turn. Assuming he bets 80, raising to 200 offers him implied odds to call with a draw

pergesu · #12 09-20-2005, 12:49 AM

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Assuming he bets 80, raising to 200 offers him implied odds to call with a draw

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There's no such thing as implied odds when you're unwilling to invest any more chips.

tshort · #13 09-20-2005, 01:12 AM

The villian doesn't know whether or not you will invest more chips. Raising to 200 on the turn gives him 3.75 to 1 odds. If spade comes on river and he bets 75 into a pot of 570, are you going to fold? If he has Ax, Kx, or Qx of spades he doesn't need his odds to be implied.

I think it is obvious we play this hand differently. I would either fold or raise to 150 on the flop, depending on the player. There are three outcomes from the different ways I would play it. I could end up with 855, 740, or 590 chips. Losing 150 hurts the remainder of my tournament strategy more than gaining 115 chips helps, so I might opt for the no risk choice of 740 vs LAG or maniac opponents.

pergesu · #14 09-20-2005, 01:19 AM

Your opponent doesn't have to make a mistake for you to benefit. When you're a favorite to win the hand, any chips that go into the pot are beneficial to you. So he can correctly call, but you have the most equity in every chip that goes in, if he is in fact on a draw.

I'll probably take a some flack for that statement, but I think this is a clear example of where cash game play deviates from tourney play. When you bet enough for him to make an error by calling, you're also risking a much more significant portion of your stack. In addition, the larger the pot is, the more willing he will be to call, because he's already put in a lot of chips. Losing the hand hurts him a lot, winning helps him a lot.

This is a pot you'd like to win, but you don't want to commit a lot of chips in doing so. I think the best thing to do is try to get as cheap a showdown as possible. If he has pot/implied odds to call (which I think you need better odds than normal, because losing half your stack in a tourney is way worse than losing half your stack in a cash game), whatever...you may not be swearing by the fundamental theorem, but you also won't be crippled 20%+ of the time.

Commit lots of chips when you know you're a big favorite.